Tag: Ofgem Price Cap

Energy bills due to increase 12% from 1 July

Energy bills are now expected to increase by £196 a year from 1st July.

While the new analyst projections are not as high as first feared, oil and gas wholesale markets remain volatile and households will face steep rises in their bills.

Cornwall Insight said its prediction for Ofgem’s cap from July to September now stands at £1,837 for a typical dual fuel household, an increase of 12% on April’s cap. In April, energy bills fell due to measures taken by the Government in the 2024 Budget.

Meanwhile, around 24 million people are worried about their ability to pay their energy bill over the next six months according to debt charity StepChange as it called for an energy social tariff to help struggling households.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:
“The damage from the latest oil and gas price crisis is already baked into price cap predictions. Millions of households in fuel poverty are going to be asked to find more money for energy on top of prices that are already unaffordable.

“Fossil fuel wholesale markets remain volatile, global events continue to dictate what we pay for energy and families already struggling with energy debt have no buffer left to absorb further rises.

“A smaller than planned increase is not relief. It is still an increase that will push more people into crisis and generate higher profits for the oil and gas industry.

“The Government must set out what help is going to be available for households both in the short and long term.”

Two-thirds of households fear for finances as energy bills set to rise

Research carried out for Lightning Reach, has found households suffering widespread financial anxiety, with two-thirds concerned about their finances over the coming months.

Nearly two-fifths said their financial situation had worsened compared with the same point last year. Three in ten had cut back on essentials including food and heating, while a quarter had used savings to cover everyday costs and one in six had borrowed from family or friends.

More than half of those surveyed said they were carrying debt, with 42% reporting that their debt had increased. Global instability has contributed to rising prices and higher mortgage rates, adding further strain to household budgets.

Despite the scale of financial difficulty, a quarter of people said they would not feel comfortable requesting financial support even if their situation required it.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Meanwhile, energy giant BP has said that it is now set for “exceptional” financial results in the first three months of the year after the Iran war sent the cost of oil soaring.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“These figures reflect what households across the country are living through. Cutting back on food and heating is not an abstract financial decision, it is a sign that the energy system based on volatile oil and gas prices is failing people.

“With forecasts pointing to a fresh energy bill rise from July, the pressure on household budgets is only going to intensify. The Government must use the next price cap period as a moment to act. Targeted bill support, action on energy debt and reform of how energy costs are structured would make a real and immediate difference to millions of households.

“And with the public backing the continuation of the Windfall Tax on energy firm profits by a margin of two-to-one, there is also a clear way to pay for this support.”

Households face summer price shock as energy cap forecast to rise

Household energy bills are now almost certain to increase from July as soaring gas wholesale costs are due to push up the Ofgem price cap.

Cornwall Insight said its prediction for the watchdog’s price cap from July to September now stands at £1,929 for a typical dual fuel household. This represents a rate £887 above winter 2020/21 and 23% higher than at the last general election.

But the new analysis marks a slight fall from forecasts earlier this month.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:
“Households are staring at another energy bill shock after a brief fall in prices from 1 April to 30 June.

“This represents a £288 ‘Trump Tax’ added to energy bills because of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on oil and gas prices.

“For the millions of households already in energy debt, this will be a real worry and risks pushing more people into crisis.

“Ministers must prepare to use increased Windfall Tax receipts to act. That means targeted support for households hit first and hardest, including those off the gas grid and on heat networks, alongside faster action on energy debt and preparations to bring down costs if prices spike further.

“But we cannot keep letting history repeat itself. The only way to break this cycle is to ramp up energy efficiency, roll out homegrown renewables and fix electricity pricing so households see the benefit of cheaper clean power.”

Energy bills set to rise again in summer as global gas tensions bite

As conflict in the Middle East continues and Qatari production of LNG gas unlikely to restart soon, analysts at Cornwall Insight expects that energy bills will increase from 1 July by 10% to around £1,800 for the average household.

Members of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition predict that this will be at the lower end of predictions, if the conflict is not resolved in the coming days. After falling back from early morning extreme highs during trading yesterday, gas prices are sitting 26% up year-on-year (as at 0930 5 March).

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The latest projections are devastating for households who had been expecting some relief on energy bills.

“Summer normally brings some respite for households because wholesale prices tend to ease as heating demand falls. So the prospect of bills rising by around 10% in July is a worrying sign that global tensions are once again feeding directly into energy costs.

“If these forecasts prove correct, the increase would wipe out the savings delivered by the Budget and pile even more pressure onto families already struggling. Energy debt is already at record levels, and millions of people remain in cold, damp homes after years of high bills.

“The deeper problem is that the UK is still dangerously exposed to volatile fossil fuel markets. As long as our energy system remains tied to global gas prices, shocks like this will continue to hit household finances.

“At the same time the energy industry stands to benefit from the crisis. It’s obscene that as bumper profits are predicted from the fresh energy crisis, some are calling for an early end to the Windfall Tax.

“Ministers must ensure the system works for consumers, not just for the fossil fuel giants, and deliver more homegrown renewables, better insulated homes and fairer energy pricing.”

Iran conflict pushes gas prices higher, but the risk for bills lies ahead

Gas wholesale prices have now hit levels not seen since 2023 (as at 09:00 3 March 2026 they were at levels last seen on 30 January 2023, up 36% year-on-year) and the cost of heating oil is also surging (up 39% year on year).

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“Global price shocks translate into higher energy costs because the UK remains so heavily dependent on gas and the mature North Sea basin will be unable to meet domestic demand within the next few years. Our energy system also links the cost of gas to electricity prices because the grid still relies on gas-fired power stations, although this influence eased last year.

“The conflict has already started to push wholesale gas prices to levels we’ve not seen since 2023, but for now most households are shielded by the Ofgem price cap.

“Bills are effectively protected until at least 1 July 2026 because the April to June cap has already been set. The cap works by smoothing out price spikes and delaying the passing on of cost increases to consumers. But that also means the real risk is what happens next.

“If wholesale prices fall back, the impact may be limited. But if elevated prices persist, they will affect Ofgem’s next price cap decision in May, which takes effect from July.

“It is also unclear how suppliers will respond in the fixed tariff market. In periods of uncertainty they often withdraw or increase the price of deals to avoid exposure to volatile wholesale costs.

“Households that rely on heating oil are even more exposed, and the latest surge in those prices will be a major concern for rural and off-grid families needing to refill in the coming weeks.

“This is a stark reminder that the UK is still dangerously exposed to volatile international markets. The only lasting protection for households is to cut gas demand through a nationwide insulation programme, expand homegrown renewables and reform energy pricing so bills are no longer tied so closely to global fossil fuel prices.”

Energy bills set to fall 7% from 1 April under Ofgem price cap

Ofgem has announced that the average household energy bill will fall by 7% from 1 April 2026.
The impact of the year-on-year changes could see the number of households paying more than 10% of their income on energy fall from 13.2m to 11.2m.
However, the changes will see energy bills remain £599 (57%) above winter 2020/21 and £73 (5%) above what they were on 1 July 2024.
Significant changes to unit costs and standing charges will take effect from 1 April 2026 and initial analysis suggests some households will see much bigger reductions than others.
A low usage household will see their bill reduce by around £80, while high usage households might see a £140 saving.
Using data from Scope and Mencap, the End Fuel Poverty Coalition has calculated that those reliant on energy for disability or health needs could see even greater savings, but will still experience a 64% ‘energy poverty premium’ with a typical bill much higher for these groups.
It remains unclear when and how energy firms will start to reflect these changes in the rates they advertise. The Government is expected to make a further announcement next month.
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:
“Government decisions are starting to make a difference and today’s fall in the price cap will bring some welcome relief to households who have been under intense pressure from high energy costs.
“But, of course, bills remain hundreds of pounds above pre-crisis levels and for millions of families in cold, damp homes this will not feel like the cost of living crisis is over. If the country is going to tackle energy affordability for good, this must be the start of deeper reform, not the end of the job.
“That means bearing down on excessive market trading costs, dealing with the growing mountain of energy debt, taking a hard look at how infrastructure costs are recovered from households and doing more work to reduce exposure to volatile gas prices.
“At the same time, the energy industry and its ultimate owners, including hedge funds and overseas investors, must continue to face scrutiny for the healthy profits made at the expense of households
“With the changes to both unit rates and standing charges still working through the system, consumers may need to be cautious about rushing into fixed deals right now. Bill payers may want to wait for the dust to settle and carefully check their specific usage to ensure any switch delivers the maximum savings.”
Hannah Wall, Community Heat & Energy Lead at climate charity Possible, said:
“Lowering the energy price cap by removing levies from customers’ bills is a welcome step forwards to support people who have been struggling with high bills. But far too many people are still living in energy poverty, and face impossible choices to keep their homes warm.
“Energy bills remain significantly higher than they were before the energy crisis, driven by soaring gas costs. The structure of our energy system still leaves us exposed to volatile fossil fuel prices. It’s unfair that our electricity bills continue to be tied to global gas markets, creating a distortion that makes it harder for people to switch to clean electric heating, which should be cheaper than dirty gas.
“We need faster action from the government to deliver promised reforms to the electricity market to ensure everyone can afford a warm home powered by clean, climate-friendly heat and energy.”
Independent Age chief executive Joanna Elson, CBE, said:
“Today’s energy price cap announcement will provide some brief respite for the older people in financial hardship, as a typical household energy bill is dropping by almost seven per cent to £1,641 from April.
“However, energy bills are still extremely high, and the older people on low incomes we support are seeing their budgets stretched beyond breaking point.
“This winter has been brutal, we have heard dreadful accounts of people in later life sitting in cold, dark homes, or cutting back on other essentials such as food so they can turn a radiator on.
“This poses a health risk to older adults and cannot be allowed to continue happening.
“There are immediate and long-term actions the UK Government can take to support people on low incomes who cannot afford to heat their homes.
“The recent Warm Home Discount extension was welcome, but at £150, it does not go far enough in supporting those in financial hardship.
“We want to see it increased to £400 to match the high cost of energy bills.
“Targeted bill support is also needed in the form of an energy social tariff that protects customers on low incomes from future spikes in costs.
“If the UK Government is serious about tackling the cost of living and raising living standards, it should take meaningful action to lift people out of fuel poverty.”
Jonathan Bean from Fuel Poverty Action, commented:
“Customers should not be fooled: energy bills are still £600 higher than 5 years ago, meaning the suffering will continue for millions of us.
“Up to £500 of our bills is energy firm profits which means that Ofgem and the Government are failing to protect us.
“We especially need a fairer deal on electricity pricing which is four times higher than gas, despite wind and solar energy being cheaper.”
James Taylor, director of strategy at Scope, added:
“Life costs a lot more if you’re disabled. The need to run lifesaving equipment or keep the heating on year-round means bills continue to be steep.
“We’re calling on Ofgem to do much more to protect disabled customers, and for the government to introduce a discounted energy deal for disabled people.”
Uplift Deputy Director Robert Palmer said:

“This is welcome news for millions of households as it shows the UK is starting to turn a corner on energy bills.

“Weaning ourselves off volatile gas is the only real long term route to affordable energy bills and last year we generated record-breaking amounts of renewable energy, with wind power cutting the wholesale cost of electricity by almost a third.
“Compare this to America where Donald Trump is blocking renewable energy and doubling down on fossil fuels, and electricity bills are rising.
“Today’s Price Cap shows we’re on the right path. It’s not just our bills that are benefitting from more renewables, our planet will too. This is a change that cannot come soon enough as already we’re seeing the impacts of climate change caused by our oil and gas dependency and the costs it imposes on everyone, whether that’s flooded homes and businesses or rising food prices.”

Energy bills likely to fall by over £100 from 1 April

Cornwall Insight’s latest price cap prediction would suggest average energy bills will fall by £117 from 1 April to £1,641.

This represents an increase from their previous prediction (£1,620), caused by the spike in gas prices earlier this year. If Ofgem confirms this prediction, it will still leave average energy bills £599 above pre crisis levels and £73 above the level at 1 July 2024.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The April price cap will see one of the biggest changes in the make-up of energy bills in recent years.

“Budget decisions to remove costs from bills and Government moves to alter how the Warm Home Discount is paid for, will mean changes across standing charges and unit costs. Even those on fixed tariffs will need to look carefully to check that energy firms pass on the changes and potential savings to these customers.

“Meanwhile, volatile gas prices earlier this year also make the wholesale element subject to uncertainty and may create an upward pressure on bills for those on the standard variable tariff.

“Households will need to keep a close eye on Ofgem’s announcement next week and pay careful attention to the changes in unit costs and standing charges, rather than focus on the headline ‘average energy bill’ figure.”

Uplift Deputy Director Robert Palmer said:

“Predictions that energy bills will fall in April suggest that the UK is starting to turn a corner on energy bills.

“Last year we generated record-breaking amounts of renewable energy, with wind power replacing gas and reducing the wholesale cost of electricity by a third. This was partly possible because of the government’s clean power plan.

“The only real, long-term route to lowering bills is to get off volatile gas, whether that’s supplied by Putin, Trump’s America or profit-hungry oil and gas companies.

“It’s not just our bills that will benefit from more renewables, it’s our planet. Already we’re seeing the impacts of climate change caused by our oil and gas dependency and the costs it imposes on everyone, whether that’s flooded homes and businesses or rising food prices.”

Energy bills to fall next spring, but cold homes remain a national challenge

Today’s Budget brings a modest but welcome reduction in energy bills. After five turbulent years, any drop in costs offers relief to households who have been stretched to breaking point. Our analysis suggests the average bill will fall to around £1,665 from April 2026 — a step in the right direction and recognition that further action on affordability is needed.

But the job is far from done. Bills will still be significantly higher than before the crisis and the UK now faces a 25% shortfall in energy efficiency funding with the end of the ECO scheme. Without restoring long-term investment in warm homes and reforming the way energy is priced, millions will continue to face unnecessary hardship.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:
“Any reduction in energy bills will be welcome as households face their fifth winter of the energy costs crisis and the Government is right to be investing in the Warm Homes Plan to help improve the energy efficiency of peoples’ homes.

“But no one can warm their home with Budget headlines, and the Chancellor’s statement also highlights the scale of the challenge.

“Even with the changes announced, we expect that from April 2026, average energy bills will still be hundreds of pounds higher than they were in winter 2020/2021 and £97 higher than at the General Election.*

“The millions of households who will still be struggling with the cost of energy need further bold action from the Government in reform of energy pricing, targeting energy bill support at those who need it, delivering on a new fuel poverty strategy and in creating an ambitious Warm Homes Plan to upgrade cold, damp homes.

“And we’d also urge the Chancellor to address a c.25% projected shortfall in total energy efficiency funding in future budgets after the ECO scheme is scrapped.”

* End Fuel Poverty Coalition estimates based on the current price cap, the Ofgem 1 January price cap announcement, industry analysts forecasts and the Chancellor’s statement / Budget documents. Price cap comparison points:

  • 01/01/2021 — £1,042
  • 01/07/2024 — £1,568
  • 01/10/2025 — £1,755
  • 01/01/2026 — £1,758
  • 01/04/2026 — £1,665

Another Winter, same crisis: Energy bills stay high as profits soar

As the UK braces for another winter of cold weather warnings, the Ofgem price cap for January to March 2026 has been announced.

Average energy bills will come in at £1,758. This is £3 higher than current levels, with bills remaining over £700 above 2020 levels and £190 higher than at the General Election in July 2024.

Meanwhile the energy industry has posted more than £40bn in UK profits in the last two years. With the Budget days away, the Government faces a defining choice.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“Energy bills remain stubbornly high as households face a fifth winter of the energy costs crisis. Today’s announcement sees standing charges rise yet again, highlighting the structural challenges in how energy is paid for.

“The addition of a new levy on bills which pays for nuclear power stations is unwelcome and could have been delayed until closer to when these plants actually start to generate electricity.

“Today’s Ofgem announcement keeps the average energy bill at almost £700 above the levels of winter 2020/21 and £190 more than at the 2024 General Election.

“Despite many people living in cold damp homes, the energy industry has posted more than £125 billion in profits in the UK alone in recent years.

“Yet some business lobbyists have called for the Chancellor to end the Windfall Tax. Instead, next week’s Budget is a chance for the Government to finally get serious about ending fuel poverty.

“We need long-term investment in energy efficiency, not short-term thinking. We need action to bring down electricity prices, not excuses. And we need a fair tax regime that puts people before profiteers.

“If the Government truly wants to cut bills and protect the public, it must fully fund the Warm Homes Plan, continue to improve our energy security, introduce a fair social tariff, and reform our broken energy pricing system.”

Energy bills could remain £691 a year higher than 2020

Media reports suggest average household energy bills might drop slightly from 1 January 2026. Experts at Cornwall Insight have said that the Ofgem price cap is expected to dip by 1%, taking an average bill to £1,733 a year.

This figure remains £691 higher than before the energy bills crisis started.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“As cold weather warnings are issued across the UK, energy bills remain at crisis levels while energy giants have generated over £125 billion in profits on their UK operations since the energy crisis started.

“Millions of households are already rationing their heating to stay afloat, and with temperatures dropping sharply the risks to people’s health and safety are becoming severe.

“After five winters of sky-high bills, families cannot be expected to cope with this alone. We urgently need reduced electricity bills and targeted financial support for those most at risk, alongside a fully funded national programme of insulation and energy-efficiency upgrades to keep homes warm.”