Damage already done to UK household finances from Iran conflict

The ceasefire between America and Iran has seen the market prices of gas and heating oil reduce from peaks.

But one market analyst warned that “the two-week ceasefire is likely to be fraught with uncertainty, but for now there are hopes that it will be a precursor to a longer-lasting agreement. There is a chance that the cost-of-living crisis consumers are already having to deal with may not be quite as painful.”

In early trading [by 1000 8 April], UK gas prices remained 38% up year on year with Heating Oil wholesale costs up 78% on 2025.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“Despite the Iranian ceasefire, the damage has been done for households. The surges in oil and gas costs have already hurt household finances and will continue to have an impact on energy bills for months to come.

”Oil, LPG and gas costs have spent over five weeks at elevated levels hitting some households immediately and all households will feel the costs from 1 July when the next Ofgem price cap period starts.

”For as long as our energy system is hooked on oil and gas prices, history will keep repeating itself and our bills will be at the mercy of decisions taken by Trump, Putin and Gulf States.

”This must be the moment we push for more support for energy efficiency measures and renewable energy to bring down bills and secure our energy supply for the long-term.”

Ministers signal no energy bill help until autumn

Average energy bills have fallen by 7% (£9.75 a month) from 1 April under the Ofgem price cap, but the relief is expected to be short-lived.

Analysts forecast that average energy bills will rise to £1,929 from July to September, driven by a 33% increase in the cost of gas, caused by the impact of the Iran conflict on global energy markets.

The Prime Minister acknowledged today that the conflict will “affect the future of our country” and the Chancellor has said the Government is “preparing for all eventualities.” But speaking to the media, Rachel Reeves signalled that a package of support for energy bills is unlikely before the autumn, suggesting help would be timed to coincide with Ofgem setting the October price cap.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The fall in energy bills from 1 April offers brief relief for households, but the respite will be short-lived. Given the ongoing profits made by the energy industry, households deserve more than a temporary reprieve before prices rise again.

“For the millions of households already in energy debt to their suppliers, this is a real concern and risks pushing more people into crisis. Ministers have details for a Debt Relief Scheme on their desks and recommendations from experts on how to help these households, but have yet to sign off on the plans.

“The Government must use the window between now and July to act. That means targeted support for those hit first and hardest, including households off the gas grid and those on heat networks, faster action on energy debt, and preparations to bring costs down if prices deteriorate further.

“Increased Windfall Tax receipts from spiking North Sea profits should be used to fund that support. But beyond the immediate crisis, the only way to break this cycle for good is to insulate homes, expand homegrown renewables and reform electricity pricing so households see the real benefit of cheaper clean power.”

Social workers paying for people’s heating out of their own pockets

Research by the Social Workers Union has found that hundreds of social workers have felt compelled to personally fund basic essentials for the people they support, including food, clothing and energy prepayment meter top-ups.

Three quarters of union members who were affected by the issue were unable to claim back the costs they incurred. More than a quarter said they were dipping into their own pockets every month, with over a third saying it had put their own finances at risk.

Despite most social workers attempting to access foodbanks, council support funds and local charities, seven in ten emergencies left no time to navigate complex or slow bureaucratic systems. The Social Workers Union has warned that the Government’s new Crisis and Resilience Fund in England, due to begin on 1 April, may not go far enough to prevent social workers continuing to plug these gaps themselves.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Asked why they had resorted to providing direct financial support to service users, one social worker told researchers: “There are often several forms to fill out to request financial support which are declined anyhow by managers. To save time – something we don’t often have – I’ve paid for items myself.”

John McGowan, Social Workers Union (SWU) General Secretary, has warned the findings expose a “broken support system”:

“It cannot be right that social workers are left to plug the gaps in a broken support system with their own money. The data paints a stark picture of a safety net riddled with delays and gaps. The true test of the new Fund moving forward will be to see if it means that local and national governments act urgently to ensure help is there when it is needed.”

The Crisis and Resilience Fund is due to be used by the Government to also provide support to households using heating oil, this has now been extended to include homes who are reliant on LPG gas after pressure from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“These findings are a damning indictment of a support system that is failing people at their most vulnerable. When social workers are reaching into their own pockets to top up prepayment meters and keep someone’s heating on, that is not a gap in the system, it is a collapse.

“The new Crisis and Resilience Fund is a step forward, and the confirmation by Ministers that it will extend to households on heating oil and LPG in England is welcome. For the first time, some of the most exposed households, those off the gas grid and outside the protection of the energy price cap, will have access to emergency support.

“But the Fund will only work if it reaches people in time. Seven in ten emergencies left no time to navigate slow or complex systems. The Government must ensure the Fund is fast, accessible and properly resourced, so that social workers are never again left to pay for someone’s heating out of their own pocket.”

Chancellor confirms energy bill support planning

The Chancellor has confirmed that contingency planning is under way for targeted energy bill support ahead of the expiry of the current Ofgem price cap at the end of June, as rising oil and gas prices driven by the Iran conflict threaten to push household bills higher from July.

Rachel Reeves told MPs that her approach to providing support would be responsive to the need and responsible in terms of protecting public finances.

The Chancellor said that support would be focused on those who need it most, indicating a preference for targeted help over a blanket approach. She pointed to the costs of the broad energy support package introduced during the Ukraine crisis as a reason to take a more focused approach.

A spokesperson for End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“Households need to know what the Chancellor’s ‘responsive and responsible’ mantra means in practice.

“The immediate priority must be a new Alternative Fuel Support Scheme for off-gas-grid households, price protection for heat network customers, action on record levels of energy debt and targeted reductions in unit rates from July for households including those with disabilities and long-term health concerns.

“The Chancellor must also commit to expanding and extending the Warm Homes Discount and reforming Cold Weather Payments before winter.

“The money is there. North Sea profits are rising alongside the same gas prices pushing up household bills. Being responsible with public finances means using subsequent tax revenues now to protect people, not waiting until the damage is done.“

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition recommended that the Government introduce a new, longer-term, Alternative Fuel Support Scheme for households relying on heating oil, LPG and other off-gas-grid fuels, as well as support for heat network customers who face rising commercial energy prices.

The proposal also recommends preparing a targeted reduction in energy unit rates from July if the Ofgem price cap rises significantly, alongside faster rollout of a national energy debt relief scheme to address record levels of household debt.

For the winter, the Coalition is calling for reforms to existing schemes including further expansion of the Warm Home Discount and strengthening Cold Weather Payments so support reaches vulnerable households earlier.

Ministers are also urged to speed up reform to electricity pricing and prepare a scalable universal support package that could be activated quickly if energy prices spike further.

Cobra must act on energy costs, not just talk

The Prime Minister has convened an emergency Cobra meeting to examine the cost-of-living impact of the Iran conflict, with oil and gas prices surging due to the threat of further escalation in the Middle East conflict.

For millions of households, the consequences are already landing. Heating oil prices have doubled in recent weeks for off-gas homes sitting outside the protection of the Ofgem price cap. And even before this latest spike, Cornwall Insight was already forecasting that average energy bills would rise to £1,973 from 1 July, a 20% increase on current levels and a figure that has almost certainly moved higher since.

The same price spike hitting households is generating a windfall for North Sea energy firms, and therefore for the Treasury through the Energy Profits Levy. New analysis published by the End Fuel Poverty Coalition shows that at prices seen in mid-March, those profits could generate over £200 million a month in additional Windfall Tax revenues, rising to more than £5 billion a year when combined with offshore corporation tax receipts.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said:

“People reliant on heating oil and gas cylinders to power their homes are already suffering from the oil and gas price spikes. Millions more households will face a 20% increase in their energy bills from July. For families who are already in debt and already struggling with energy bills, there is no more time to waste.

“North Sea energy firms are on course to make bumper profits as a direct result of this crisis, potentially generating hundreds of millions of pounds a month in additional Windfall Tax revenues at current prices. That money should be used to protect households from the bill rises heading their way. Every lever available includes the levers that take money from those profiting from this crisis and put it into the pockets of those suffering because of it.

“The Government should come out of the Cobra meeting with a clear commitment to targeted support for the households most at risk. The framework for that support must be ready to activate the moment the July price cap is confirmed. The lesson of the last energy crisis is that acting too slowly costs far more in the long run, both for households and for the public finances. The time to prepare that emergency support package is now.”

Government urged to prepare emergency energy bill support

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has written to ministers urging the Government to prepare an emergency energy support framework to protect households from rising energy bills as global fossil fuel prices remain volatile.

In a new policy proposal sent to the UK Government, the Coalition warns that the current gas and oil price crisis could see millions of households in fuel poverty if bills increase again from July.

While the Ofgem energy price cap is set to fall slightly from April 2026, rising wholesale gas prices mean bills could rise sharply again this summer. Early projections suggest the average annual bill could increase and, as a result, the Coalition estimates that around 13 million households will be left spending more than 10% of their income on energy, with c.5 million spending more than 20%.

Some households are already feeling the impact of rising costs. Off-gas households relying on heating oil have reported refill prices doubling in recent weeks, LPG customers are facing rising prices, while heat network customers could soon face steep increases as energy supply contracts expire.

The Coalition’s proposals focus on targeted support for households most exposed to high energy costs, while retaining the ability to expand support more widely if the crisis deepens.

The immediate measures recommended include a new, longer-term, Alternative Fuel Support Scheme for households relying on heating oil, LPG and other off-gas-grid fuels, as well as support for heat network customers who face rising commercial energy prices.

The proposal also recommends preparing a targeted reduction in energy unit rates from July if the Ofgem price cap rises significantly, alongside faster rollout of a national energy debt relief scheme to address record levels of household debt.

For the winter, the Coalition is calling for reforms to existing schemes including further expansion of the Warm Home Discount and strengthening Cold Weather Payments so support reaches vulnerable households earlier.

Ministers are also urged to speed up reform to electricity pricing and prepare a scalable universal support package that could be activated quickly if energy prices spike further.

The Coalition says the proposals are designed to complement longer-term policies such as the Government’s Warm Homes Plan and Clean Power Plan, which aim to reduce energy bills permanently by improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

However, campaigners warn that households still need protection from price shocks in the meantime.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said

“Millions of households are still recovering from the last energy crisis, with record levels of energy debt and many already struggling to afford their bills.

“The risk is that we see another wave of fuel poverty driven by the oil and gas price crisis caused by Trump’s war in the Middle East.

“This is history repeating itself and rather than making snap decisions, the Government should establish an emergency support framework now, so households know what support can be expected.

“Reducing energy price spikes benefits the whole country. It helps limit inflation, reduces pressure on household finances, prevents worsening fuel poverty and cuts the health impacts associated with cold homes.

“This support should be funded fairly. Energy companies and other parts of the energy industry make huge profits during periods of price volatility, so it is only right that windfall taxes and excess profits are used to help protect households from another energy price shock.”

Maria Booker, Head of Policy, Fair By Design, commented:

“The Government must use the next two and a half months to design an emergency support package that is both effective and fair. Support should be carefully targeted towards those who need it most and funded in an equitable way.

“This shock is yet  another reminder of why the Government must accelerate progress on data‑matching capabilities so that support can be better targeted.

“Ultimately, reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and transitioning to clean power generated here in the UK, will mean we are not at the mercy of global energy shocks like this in future.”

Uplift Deputy Director Robert Palmer said:

“Everyone in the UK is going to pay the price if this reckless conflict continues via a ‘Trump War Tax’ that could add thousands of pounds to people’s bills.

“We risk seeing higher energy bills, more expensive petrol, pricier mortgages and bigger food bills. It’s good to see some immediate support from the government on heating oil and it’s crucial that the government provides further support if it’s needed on bills.

“The UK must also plan for the long term. What we need is to ramp up the shift to renewable power so we have cheaper energy, secure supply and a cleaner environment. Oil and gas profiteers, who stand to make billions out of the Iran crisis,  should pay their share of any financial help.”

Morgan Vine, Director of Policy and Influencing at Independent Age said:

“It is clear that support is needed for older people in financial hardship who are understandably anxious about what the fuel crisis could mean for them. With over half of older people on a low income already finding it a struggle to keep up with their energy bills, many are already making tough choices, not turning the lights on at night, heating only one room even in the depths of winter, or washing in cold water.

“Older people on low incomes can’t afford to absorb any more costs; they’re already at breaking point. The UK Government must take comprehensive action now to protect everyone on a low income from sky-high energy prices.”

Jonathan Bean, spokesperson for Fuel Poverty Action, said:

“Any emergency support must recognise that electric-only homes face much higher unit prices than oil and gas households due to our rigged energy market.

“The Government must urgently break the link between gas and electricity which allows firms to inflate the price of cheap renewable energy.

“The Prime Minister must also get a grip on the huge profits that already make up £500 of the average energy bill. If the Government was serious about bringing down our bills, they would work with Ofgem to cut profits and pass the savings back to us.”

Susie Elks, Senior Policy Advisor on the UK Power System at E3G commented:

“In spite of this crisis, the government must continue to resolve the challenges which are increasing some of the underlying drivers for bills. They must lower the cost of ‘hidden taxes’ on bills, which add £11bn to households and business energy bills.

“They must solve the energy debt crisis, which is adding £50-£70 to every household’s bill.

“They must find a way for us to modernise our energy networks, which have been chronically underinvested in, whilst managing the costs to households.”

Ian Preston, Director of Development and External Affairs from the Centre for Sustainable Energy commented:

“Another fossil fuel price crisis, when many households still haven’t recovered from the last one, underlines the urgent need to support households to switch to heat pumps powered by homegrown renewable energy generation as quickly as possible. But, in the meantime though, bill payers, especially those reliant on oil or LPG, need bill support to stay warm this coming winter.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition brings together more than 100 charities, health organisations, housing groups, trade unions and consumer bodies working to end fuel poverty across the UK.

The full proposal has been shared with ministers and officials and the Coalition has offered to meet with the Government to discuss how the measures could be implemented.

ENDS

The full proposals can be read here.

Fuel poverty calculations are extrapolations using analyst forecasts of average energy bills and based on the data compiled in 2025 https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/fuel-poverty-statistics-show-12-million-households-struggling/

Heating oil households to receive support as ministers consider market crackdown

The Prime Minister has announced a £53 million support package to help vulnerable households that rely on heating oil as global fossil fuel prices surge following conflict in the Middle East.

The Government says the funding will provide targeted support to households most exposed to rising costs, while also signalling that ministers may consider stronger regulation of the heating oil market. In England, it is expected to be available via the local authority-delivered Crisis Resilience Fund.

However, details on eligibility, delivery and how the scheme will operate across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have yet to be published.

Ministers have also signalled that stronger oversight of the heating oil market may be introduced, with the Competition and Markets Authority asked to monitor prices closely and act if companies exploit the current crisis.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“This announcement recognises that households who rely on heating oil are uniquely exposed to fossil fuel price shocks, the market lacks the consumer protections seen elsewhere in the energy system and government intervention is necessary when prices surge.

“The targeted support and steps towards stronger protections are welcome. However, the financial help announced today is relatively limited and will take time to reach households that are suffering now. We also need more details about eligibility and how the scheme will work in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

“If prices remain high ministers will need to go further with a stronger Alternative Fuel Support Scheme to ensure off-gas-grid households – including those in park homes, care homes and on heat networks – are properly supported.

“The longer-term solution must be helping oil-heated homes to move away from expensive fossil fuels through insulation, alternative heating systems, heat pumps and community energy so households are not repeatedly exposed to global energy shocks.

“We would also urge Ministers to talk to charities, advice providers and experts now about the measures that may be needed from 1 July after the current price cap protection ends.”

Caroline Abrahams CBE, charity director at Age UK, said:

“We welcome the Government’s recognition that households using heating oil require support, and it’s good that funding will be made available. However, we need to see the detail on how this will be delivered, and our strong sense is that £53 million is unlikely to match the scale of the challenge, given the number of households affected, many of them headed by older people who are already struggling with ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

“It’s also important to recognise that there are other groups of older people who are also facing immediate price rises – including some heat network consumers, park home residents and care home residents – who are not covered by this plan.

“For context, even before prices started rising because of the war, nationally representative polling commissioned for Age UK found that this winter one in three people aged 66+ (35%) – around 4.2 million – had recently cut back on heating or powering their homes. The clear implication is that many older people simply cannot cope with another increase in energy costs.

“We believe the Government should go further than has been announced today. Local authorities need sufficient resources and flexibility to respond quickly when people face sudden financial crises, and the scale of support on offer must reflect the level of need we’re seeing among older households.”

Two million households won’t turn on their heating this winter

More than two million households say they won’t turn on their heating this winter, an increase on last year, reveals new Uswitch research.

Speaking to the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, a spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“Not turning on your heating is an example of what we call dangerous behaviours. Being unable to heat your home properly is unsafe – it risks your health and leads to damp and mould, which make conditions even worse. Around 200,000 households in Scotland face this extreme form of fuel poverty, but the problem is far wider, with almost half a million Scottish households spending over 20% of their income on energy.”

Across the UK as a whole, over 12 million households spend more than 10% of their income on energy (43%) and around 5 million spend more than 20% on energy bills.

The spokesperson urged households to be alert to scams and to contact their energy supplier to check if they need to apply for the Warm Home Discount (see this Money Saving Expert advice) and other vital support with the cost of energy.

“While support such as the Warm Home Discount and winter heating or winter fuel payments can provide short-term relief, we cannot keep papering over the cracks each year. We need urgent investment in insulation and home upgrades, alongside reform of how energy is priced, so people can live in warm, safe homes without relying on volatile gas imports.”

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