The Government has set out its proposed level for the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7), adopting the Climate Change Committee’s target to reduce emissions in the period 2038 to 2042.
The decisions that determine whether targets are met are already being made now, including the Warm Homes Plan, electricity pricing reform and long-term support with energy bills.
Analysis published in March 2026 found that a single fossil fuel price shock equivalent to the 2022 surge triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would cost the UK economy around the same as the total net additional cost of meeting the net zero pathway across every year to 2050.
Households are already facing another version of that shock with the unit price of gas increasing by 28% from 1 July as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:
“The Iran conflict, like the Ukraine invasion before it, is a reminder that as long as our homes run on gas, our bills will be set by decisions made in Riyadh, Moscow and Washington. So while there is a cost to acting on climate change, the cost of not acting is even greater and is a cost already felt in energy bills.
“Staying on gas forever is not viable. Firms have already extracted 90% of commercially viable gas from the North Sea while posting billions in profits, and import dependence will only rise as the basin ages. Even industry figures admit that geological reality.
“But we cannot accept a transition that simply swaps one form of profiteering for another. The move to clean energy must not become a fresh opportunity for the market to extract profits from people who can least afford it. The benefits of change must flow to households, not disappear into the pockets of energy giants.
“A key policy that will deliver the transition is the Warm Homes Plan. This is the right vehicle for change, but delivery must be done right. We are calling on the government to adopt a Warm Homes Guarantee to underpin the Plan built around four commitments: real warmth and wellbeing outcomes, independent advice households can trust, strong rights and redress when things go wrong, and a measurable reduction in energy costs.”
The urgency is compounded by the latest warnings from the World Meteorological Organisation, which this week put the probability of a warming El Niño event arriving this summer at 80%, with a 90% chance it continues through to at least November. Scientists warn the phenomenon, which pushes global temperatures higher by warming Pacific sea surface temperatures, will compound the effects of human-driven climate change and trigger more extreme weather. If it occurs, it raises the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year for global temperatures, following 2024, when the world’s average temperature exceeded the key 1.5C threshold for the first time.