North Sea energy firms are set to make bumper profits, which would lead to increased revenues for the Government under the Windfall Tax, according to new figures reported exclusively in the Mirror.
Fossil fuel costs surged again late last week as attacks on energy sites in Iran and Qatar were followed by threats from US President Donald Trump to “massively blow up” a key Iranian gas field.
The data shows that for every month that energy prices remain at levels seen on 18th March 2026, profits from these prices could result in over £200m in revenue through the Energy Profits Levy. If prices stayed at this level, this would result in annual income of over £2.4bn. [1]
If combined with additional offshore corporation tax revenue on energy firms’ profits, the totals increase even further to £427m a month or £5.1bn a year. [2]
While the Ofgem energy price cap is set to fall slightly from April 2026, rising wholesale gas prices mean bills will rise sharply again from 1 July. Some households are already feeling the impact of rising costs. Off-gas households relying on heating oil have reported refill prices doubling in recent weeks, LPG customers are facing rising prices and some heat network customers could soon face steep increases as energy supply contracts expire.
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has recently asked the Government to prepare an emergency energy support framework to protect households from rising gas and oil prices which will filter onto energy bills [3].
A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:
“Anyone still arguing against the Energy Profits Levy should hang their head in shame. Whenever oil and gas prices spike, energy industry profits rise while households are left to face higher bills, deeper debt and impossible choices.
“It is only fair that these windfall profits help households who will suffer as a result of the increases in energy bills.
“Our message to ministers is simple. Help the hardest-hit households first and be ready to move fast if this crisis gets worse. That means urgent support for off-gas homes and heat network customers, targeted bill cuts if prices rise again, action on energy debt and stronger winter protection.
“It would protect people now while longer-term reforms bring bills down for good.”
Since 2020, energy firms have already made more than £125bn in profits on their UK operations.
In Scotland, recent polling showed that voters across the political spectrum backed the Windfall Tax on energy profits in its current form. Frazer Scott, Chief Executive of Energy Action Scotland, commented:
“The current crisis shows that energy companies continue to make excessive profits at the expense of people. People who cannot heat their homes to a safe level and are burdened by £5.5bn of unrepayable domestic energy debt. Until there is reform that puts people at the heart of the energy system it is right for big business to put its fair share back to help those that need it most.”
Uplift Deputy Director Robert Palmer, said:
“Billpayers didn’t ask for this war and are now facing a huge Trump Tax on petrol, mortgages and food, with sky high energy bills looming once the current price cap ends. Yet once again, as we saw in Ukraine, oil and gas companies are profiting from what is a humanitarian crisis.
“The extra billions they stand to make from the crisis should be taxed and used to support people through the economic pain that’s on its way. Ultimately the only way to bring down bills over the long term is to get off our reliance on oil and gas, and invest as fast as we can in renewables.”
Jonathan Bean, spokesperson for Fuel Poverty Action, said:
“Instead of the £300 bill saving the Government promised us, we now face a £300 bill jump from July. The Government failed to fix the market after the 2022 crisis, so we’ve been left vulnerable to price spikes. The Prime Minister needs to get a grip on the obscene profiteering from war, close windfall tax loopholes, and bring down our bills.”
ENDS
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition brings together more than 100 charities, health organisations, housing groups, trade unions and consumer bodies working to end fuel poverty across the UK.
[1] OBR March 2025 ready reckoners (fetched 17 March 2026), applied to OBR March 2026 EFO baseline prices. Prices assumed: $100 barrel for oil and 130p/therm gas. This calculation was made before the additional spike in prices caused by the attacks on Iranian and Qatari gas facilities on 19th March, so the figures could be higher if current prices are sustained. .
[2] Prior to the latest escalation in prices and before the OBR updated its ready reckoners on the 17th of March analysis for Granville Partners, a consultancy firm run by former Conservative Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ex-chief of staff estimated the total extra tax revenue at £2.7bn. This could now be at the lower end of expectations and may not be directly comparable with the analysis above.
[3] The Coalition’s proposals focus on targeted support for households most exposed to high energy costs, while retaining the ability to expand support more widely if the crisis deepens.
The immediate measures recommended include a new, longer-term, Alternative Fuel Support Scheme for households relying on heating oil, LPG and other off-gas-grid fuels, as well as support for heat network customers who face rising commercial energy prices.
The proposal also recommends preparing a targeted reduction in energy unit rates from July if the Ofgem price cap rises significantly, alongside faster rollout of a national energy debt relief scheme to address record levels of household debt.
For the winter, the Coalition is calling for reforms to existing schemes including further expansion of the Warm Home Discount and strengthening Cold Weather Payments so support reaches vulnerable households earlier.
Ministers are also urged to speed up reform to electricity pricing and prepare a scalable universal support package that could be activated quickly if energy prices spike further.
The Coalition says the proposals are designed to complement longer-term policies such as the Government’s Warm Homes Plan and Clean Power Plan, which aim to reduce energy bills permanently by improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.