fossil fuels Archives - End Fuel Poverty Coalition

North Sea gas unable to meet national heating needs from 2027

The country will no longer be able to meet heating demand using only domestically extracted gas by 2027, even if new fields are approved, according to new analysis of official North Sea production data.

Official data shows that by 2027, UK gas production is set to fall short of what’s needed just to heat our homes, which currently accounts for 38% of UK gas use. In just two years’ time, more than two-thirds of the UK’s gas needs will be dependent on imports. [1]

The figures provide a clear warning that the North Sea is running out of gas.

Even if new fields are approved, it won’t be enough to reverse the trend and the UK would still be almost entirely (94%) reliant on imports by 2050.

Experts say this has nothing to do with politics or policy — it’s the geological reality after half a century of drilling. Of all the gas estimated to have been in the North Sea basin, just 14% remains commercially viable according to official statistics. [2]

Even the lobbyists working for the North Sea industry admit that the financial viability of any additional extraction is “beyond realistic assumptions” and would only be possible with “major industry change.” [3]

Gas extracted from the North Sea is usually sold on international markets, which also leaves UK consumers subject to volatile prices. But even if the UK took the drastic step of only supplying its national needs, the trend data shows that at current levels of UK demand, existing fields hold just over three years of gas. New fields would add less than half a year.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The geological reality is that the North Sea basin is dying and there are limited levels of gas for home heating left. The country is simply running out of gas and no amount of new drilling will stop Britain’s deepening dependency on foreign gas.

“The sooner households are supported to move to alternative heating and cooking systems the better.

“But what’s worse right now is that some politicians are dangerously misleading the public by overstating the North Sea’s continuing role in UK energy security.”

Recent polling by Uplift found that around two-fifths (41%) of the public mistakenly believe that there is enough gas left to significantly reduce or eliminate gas imports. [4]

Donald Trump recently claimed there’s a “century of drilling” left in the North Sea. Nigel Farage says the UK should be “self-sufficient” in gas and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has alleged that gas will power Britain “for generations”.

Tessa Khan, executive director at Uplift commented: “Politicians are deliberately and dangerously misleading the public into thinking this country has a secure energy supply in the North Sea, when it is clear we do not.

“The hard truth is that, after 60 years of drilling, the UK has burned most of its gas and no amount of new drilling will change that. Our reliance on foreign gas is going to increase unless and until we shift to renewable energy, like wind, which we’re lucky to have in abundance.

“We cannot afford another decade of delay. Quite apart from the extra costs that households and businesses will incur from continuing to rely on volatile fossil fuels, and the damage they are causing to our climate, the UK’s energy workers need jobs that have a secure future.”

Polling previously found that two-thirds (67%) of the country are already concerned about the impact of the UK’s reliance on oil and gas.

ENDS

[1] Methodology and assumptions for analysis undertaken by the research team at Uplift on behalf of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition.

Residential gas demand is based on estimates from the Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget Balanced Net Zero Pathway (BNZP). If action is not taken to decarbonise in line with the CCC’s BNZP, then the CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget baseline scenario estimates for residential gas demand suggest that this inflection point will take place in 2026, instead of 2027.

NSTA production projections (March 2025) were used by researchers at Uplift to estimate gas import dependency in the UK through to 2050 under the CCC’s BNZP.

The nation’s gas import dependency is set to rise from 55% today to 68% in 2030, 85% in 2040, and 94% in 2050 — even if new fields like Rosebank, whose reserves are primarily oil destined for export, are given the green light. Even if new licenses were to be approved, the maximum they could reduce import dependency in any given year is again just 2%, meaning that gas import dependency would still soar to 83% in 2040 and 92% in 2050.

On an annual basis, the amounts of gas expected to be produced within already producing or sanctioned UKCS fields were compared against the amounts of gas required to meet UK demand under the Climate Change Committee’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway (as published within the NSTA’s projections).

This established what proportion of UK gas demand could be met by UKCS gas production without the development of new projects, with the remainder needing to be met by gas imports – thus providing a baseline estimate of UK gas import dependency.

This analysis assumes that all gas produced in the UK is used domestically, as estimates for the exportation rates of gas produced in the UKCS are unavailable. However, there is no guarantee that gas produced from UK fields will be used within the UK, and so this is likely to overestimate the amount of gas that will be used to meet UK demand.

As such, this analysis provides the most optimistic estimates of UK gas import dependency. In reality, gas import dependency levels will likely be higher.

To estimate how import dependency could change with the development of new North Sea fields, gas import dependency was recalculated accounting for the NSTA’s production projections for gas with the development of undeveloped discoveries.

To analyse the potential impacts of the Rosebank and Jackdaw projects, gas import dependency was recalculated accounting for the annual gas production estimates published in the Rosebank and Jackdaw Environmental Statements.

Production estimates from the Rosebank and Jackdaw Environment Statements provide the highest range of gas expected to be produced from these fields, which are necessary to assess the worst case environmental impacts. However, the mid case production profiles, which provide the most likely range for production from these fields, are lower. As such, the impacts of the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields on UK gas import dependency will be overstated.

[2] The UK has already extracted 86% of recoverable gas from the UKCS, leaving just 14%, most of which lies within existing fields (8% in existing fields, 1% in new fields, 2% in licensed but undeveloped, and the rest in unlicensed acreage). Based on data in: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/vtjkyqnf/uk-reserves-and-resources-report-as-at-end-2023.pdf

Expert commentary includes:

Andy Samuel, former head of the regulator, North Sea Transition Authority, has said “it’s unlikely, given [the North Sea is] a mature basin and the geology is well-known, that we’re suddenly going to have a situation where we are significantly growing production again.”
Former BP chief Lord Browne has said the decision by the previous government to expand North Sea drilling is “not going to make any difference” to Britain’s energy security and is “symbolic”.

[3] Westwood Global Energy Group “Potential of the UKCS under different scenarios” summary report on behalf of OEUK (June, 2025), p15.

[4] Polling commissioned by Uplift and conducted by Opinium in May 2025, with a representative sample of 2,050 UK adults.

Role of gas in the spotlight as energy prices set to rise

Forecasts reveal the energy bill price cap is set to rise yet again in April when Ofgem makes the next price cap announcement on 25th February.

Meanwhile analysis of the energy market prices show that the increasing average household cost of energy directly mirrors a trend-line of gas prices since July 2024. [1]

At the heart of the challenge is the system that sees electricity prices being set by the cost of gas up to 40% of the time under the marginal pricing rules.

With the cost of gas rising to a two year high in recent weeks, the over reliance on fossil fuels in the country’s energy system is continuing to cause distress in households.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“As volatile energy bills continue to be set by our reliance on global wholesale markets and driven by the cost of gas, it is even more vital that we see moves toward sustainable, cheaper, renewable energy.

“This of course needs to be combined with support for vulnerable households with their energy bills and investment in helping people make their homes more energy efficient – especially those living in low quality private rented homes.

“But until homes can be upgraded, consumers need to navigate a confusing array of energy tariffs. When comparing tariffs, customers must use their own energy usage and must not rely on industry averages as this may hide the true cost a household will pay.

“Customers also need to look out for exit fees which may trap you into uncompetitive tariffs in the future. And, if a household is interested in moving to a ‘tracker’ style tariff, it is even more important to make sure you look at your own usage, the unit costs and the standing charges and check that they will offer you real value for money.”

The current gas price surge is driven by the conflict in Ukraine, a colder than expected European winter and volatile wholesale markets operated by city market traders.

Campaigners have claimed that the latest energy price forecasts show customers are being gaslighted by an industry that has made £483 billion in profits since 2020.

Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson said:

“It’s soul destroying that there will be another price cap rise. What billpayers don’t know is that even their electricity bills are chained to gas prices. This over reliance on gas – both for our heating and in setting the electricity price – is why we saw huge hikes in bills four years ago and now we are seeing prices set to rise again.

“Instead, the public are being told by some politicians that net zero and green policies are to blame which couldn’t be further from the truth and we need to stop gaslighting people.

“Our bills are high and the ones who benefit are greedy gas and oil companies who are making billions. That is why we desperately need to develop our own renewable energy sources as the only way to achieve lower prices and energy security for good.”

ENDS

[1] Raw data for chart as below.

Date	Gas price (USD/MMBtu)	Average annual energy bill (GBP)
Jul-24	2.04	1568.00
Aug-24	2.24	1568.00
Sep-24	2.32	1568.00
Oct-24	2.35	1717.00
Nov-24	2.82	1717.00
Dec-24	3.31	1717.00
Jan-25	3.95	1738.00
Feb-25	3.62	1738.00
Mar-25	Trend line	1738.00
Apr-25	Trend line	1846.00* or 1823.00**

Source for Natural Gas Prices: Bloomberg taken on closest working day to 17th of each month. Source for Energy Bill prices: Ofgem / *Guardian 18/2/25 **BBC 18/2/25

Public priced out of essential warm home measures

Nearly four in 10 UK households (39%) say they cannot afford to insulate their homes, according to new data commissioned by the Warm This Winter coalition, prompting campaigners to demand the government urgently refocus its efforts on boosting energy saving measures.

Half of all Londoners (50%) say that they cannot afford energy efficiency measures, the highest in the country, followed by households in Wales (46%) and Yorkshire and Humber (45%).

And the UK has some of the leakiest homes in Europe, with the majority rated EPC Band D or below and around a fifth of homes have no roof insulation, leaving consumers paying higher energy bills for colder homes.

Analysis shows that it would take 190 years to upgrade the energy efficiency of the UK’s draughty housing stock at the current rate of the government’s flagship programme, the ‘Great British Insulation Scheme’, which installed just over 1,000 energy efficiency measures between March and October 2023.

Upgrading inefficient homes to EPC band C would collectively save consumers £24 billion on their energy bills by 2030.

It would also give the UK more energy independence as insulation lowers the amount of gas required to heat homes, and gas will increasingly come from abroad as the North Sea continues its decline. Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has conceded that the Government’s new Oil and Gas Licensing Bill won’t bring down energy bills.

Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, commented:

“This government is obsessing over oil and gas drilling, which will do absolutely nothing to lower bills, while progress on energy efficiency, which is the quickest and cheapest way to keep people warm this winter, has slowed to a crawl.

“Ministers need to realise that millions of people cannot afford to insulate their homes and that, by turning its back on them, it is condemning people to live in cold homes.

“The more the temperature drops, the more enraging it is to watch this government waste time and effort trying to wring the last drop of gas from the North Sea, when saving energy would help people so much more.”

The start of this year saw energy bills increase by a further £94 for the average household. A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition added:

“While households struggle in cold, damp, mouldy homes and struggle to pay their bills, Ministers are sitting on their hands.

“They refused to introduce an Emergency Energy Tariff for vulnerable households and have refused to set up an industry wide scheme to help people repay their energy debts.

“Instead, they have allowed energy firms to restart using the courts to force households onto prepayment meters and have now ruled out reform to energy tariffs to help those most in need.

“What we need to see is urgent action on energy bills and the cost of insulation. But Ministers would rather play politics with a ridiculous Oil & Gas Licensing Bill that will do nothing to improve energy security or lower bills.”

ENDS

Opinium conducted a nationally representative survey among 2,000 UK Adults from the 24th – 28th November 2023 or 20th – 24th October 2023. Results were weighted to be nationally representative.

Rosebank gas go-ahead still leaves Brits in the cold

The Government’s approval of the Rosebank oil and gas field has been met with criticism from campaigners and politicians for keeping the country hooked on expensive fossil fuels.

Fewer than one in ten people think that more oil and gas production will reduce bills and increase energy security, a poll suggests.

But even business and energy experts have concerns. The former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon Kwasi Kwateng MP, previously said that additional UK production will not “materially affect the wholesale price” of gas that households pay.

Reporters at Bloomberg concluded that: “The field won’t begin pumping oil and gas until at least 2026, and isn’t large enough to have an impact on the security of UK energy supply nor prices. However, it was seen as a test case for whether a country like the UK, which claims leadership in the area of low-carbon policies, should continue to tap fossil fuels.”

Most of the investment from Norwegian oil giant Equinor, which made £4.5bn in post tax profits in the first six months of 2023, will be subject to a tax break as part of Windfall Tax loopholes. If these loopholes were closed, it could raise money to help those in fuel poverty.

In addition, experts calculate that there is a potential loss to the Exchequer. This is based on the gap between the tax breaks being handed to Rosebank’s developers to kick start the project and then the predicted tax payments from the profits of selling Rosebank’s oil reserves coming after the current 75% windfall tax period has elapsed.

Fiona Waters, a spokesperson for the Warm This Winter Campaign, said:

“Our energy system is broken, yet rather than helping the millions of people who are facing another winter of sky high bills, the UK government is choosing to dish out billions in tax breaks to Norwegian oil giant, Equinor. Drilling the Rosebank oil field will not make one bit of difference to UK fuel bills. All while the government delays access to cheap onshore renewable energy that could be powering our homes and bringing down our energy bills.

“The government needs to stop acting for the oil and gas companies and taking decisions that boost their profits, and instead prioritise action that will cut our energy bills and benefit ordinary UK households for good.”

The coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition told The Guardian:

“Hidden in the small print of the deal is that this project can only go ahead thanks to a massive tax break the Government is giving to international oil and gas giant Equinor.

“Households struggling with their energy bills will be shocked that the new Energy Secretary has chosen to hand a multi-billion pound tax break to this Norwegian firm, rather than help people in the UK suffering in fuel poverty.

“This sum alone could have provided much needed additional support to help disabled households, those living off the gas grid and the elderly.

“The Government’s major drive to keep the country hooked on fossil fuels will be for little reward. Figures show that more North Sea production will only give us an extra year of domestic gas, which will be charged to struggling households at global market prices.”

Major home insulation programme would drastically slash bills

The energy bills of almost eight million households could be slashed by as much as 40% if the government prioritises retrofitting the country’s draughty, heat-leaking homes, according to new predictions.

End Fuel Poverty Coalition members, Friends of the Earth, predict cavity wall insulation can reduce energy consumption by up to 20%, as can loft insulation.

For an average dual fuel household, the savings that could be made are around £750 a year.

New analysis by the environmental campaign group has identified the areas of the country that would most benefit from a massive programme of free loft and cavity wall insulation, broken down by both local authority area and parliamentary constituency.

Friends of the Earth is calling on the government to implement this policy as part of its upcoming energy review.

The top five local authority areas where most homes could see vast improvements in energy efficiency through the rollout of loft insulation are Birmingham, Leeds, Cornwall, Bradford, and Buckinghamshire.

Similarly, Birmingham, Leeds, Bradford and Buckinghamshire are among the top five areas where homes would most benefit from cavity wall insulation, as well as Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole.

The average household will see energy costs rise by £693 this year, which is expected to climb higher still when the energy regulator re-evaluates the price cap again later this year.

Estimates suggest that one in four households will be plunged into fuel poverty from today as the initial price hike comes into effect. In some parts of the country, this will rise to more than 40% of households.

However, there are 5.7 million homes across the country where loft insulation could help households make significant cost savings, and a further 5.2 million where cavity wall insulation would have a similar effect.

The group has found that the majority (approximately 60%) of homes which could see lower bills through a government energy efficiency programme are in areas where household incomes are below the national average.

Areas with the highest levels of poverty are also twice as likely to have homes requiring better insulation than areas with the highest concentration of wealth, say campaigners.

Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said:

We know that our bills would already be significantly lower had the government not scrapped plans to make UK homes more energy efficient back in 2013. While the government can’t turn back time, it can choose to boost energy efficiency to reduce energy bills now and end the UK’s dependency on imported gas.

A free loft and cavity wall insulation programme, targeted at areas with high levels of fuel poverty, can be rolled out quickly by councils and will make a huge difference for millions of people ahead of next winter. The bonus is that this will also cut carbon emissions.

This programme can and should be funded by a Windfall Tax on profiteering fossil fuel companies. The government must commit to this as part of its upcoming Energy Security Strategy.

Sana Yusuf, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said:

Sky-rocketing energy costs resulting from today’s price rise have many households wondering how they’ll afford to make ends meet, but without much-needed government intervention the number of people facing extreme financial hardship is shockingly high.

Priority number one has to be protecting our communities from this and future price shocks. It’s crystal clear that our system is broken, and it’s because of the UK’s reliance on highly volatile gas that energy prices have spiralled well out of control.

Extracting more fossil fuels simply isn’t the answer, not even in the short-term, because new developments take decades to become operational, will do nothing to help people struggling now, and will fuel climate breakdown which is already harming millions across the globe.

Clearly, the quickest, cleanest, long-term solutions are already before us. Boosting energy efficiency is a crucial place to start, alongside an ambitious plan to scale up the country’s renewable energy capacity.

Joint call for action on fuel poverty and fossil fuels cut

Civil society groups – including the End Fuel Poverty Coalition – have called for greater action on fuel poverty and to cut fossil fuels in the Government’s upcoming Energy Independence Plan

37 organisations spanning fuel poverty, social justice and environmental campaigns wrote to the government on 15 March 2022 calling for greater support for vulnerable households and for decarbonisation to help bolster the UK’s energy security in the imminent Energy Independence Plan and Spring Statement.

The joint letter, addressed to the Prime Minister, Chancellor and Business Secretary, calls for immediate extra support for households facing huge energy price rises, scaled up measures to reduce our gas use and a shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Measures called for include targeted support that covers the expected rise in energy bills for households on low incomes, long term funding and support for insulation and heat pumps, an expansion of wind and solar energy, and a commitment to rule out new North Sea oil and gas and keep the fracking ban in place.

The letter calls on the government to “ensure the upcoming energy independence plan protects vulnerable households, lowers bills, tackles the climate emergency, addresses air pollution, and gets the UK off gas.”

Juliet Phillips, Senior Policy Advisor at E3G said:

Green homes are the most obvious energy security solution which no one is talking about. Energy security starts at home: this means supercharging a renovation wave to cut energy bills and permanently reduce the exposure of families to volatile international gas markets – boosting energy efficiency and rolling out electric heat pumps. The Chancellor and Prime Minister must seize the moment and push forward an ambitious, long-term plan to support warmer, healthier homes which are cheaper to run.

Rebecca Newsom, Head of Politics at Greenpeace UK said:

This is a fossil fuel crisis, and new fossil fuels from the likes of fracking or new North Sea oil and gas aren’t going to solve our problems. We can reach true energy freedom and stand up to Putin, but that needs the government to back properly funded measures to support households, accelerate renewables and properly fund home upgrades to reduce our use of gas altogether. Otherwise this risks being yet another plan that props up our dependence on volatile and expensive fossil fuels at just the moment we can least afford it.

Dan Paskins, Director of UK Impact, Save the Children UK said:

The cost-of-living crisis, fuelled by soaring energy prices, is totally unsustainable and is hitting the lowest-income families the hardest.

Parents are telling us that they’re struggling to meet basic needs, leaving them having to make impossible choices between heating their homes and buying clothes for their children, and children are paying the price. Without action, things are only going to get harder.

In the upcoming Spring Statement, the Chancellor has an opportunity to ease this burden on families by uprating benefits in line with April’s inflation rate, and invest to keep homes warm and bring fuel bills down.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition added:

We’re now seeing the dire consequences of the energy bill crisis come to fruition.

Up and down the country people are scared about how they will make ends meet come 1 April 2022.

A British Medical Journal paper published last week also set out the frightening health consequences for people living in cold, damp homes.

We need greater urgent financial assistance throughout 2022/23 for those in fuel poverty and a long term plan that will rapidly improve energy efficiency of homes across the country.