gas prices Archives - End Fuel Poverty Coalition

Forecast shows a hard winter on the horizon after July price cap rise

Energy bills are now forecast to rise by £209 to £1,850 from July, a 13% increase on the current £1,641 cap, according to Cornwall Insight.

The analysts confirm that main driver is rising wholesale prices following US and Israeli missile strikes on Iran, damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The costs represent an 8% year-on-year increase, but October is now also being flagged by experts as an even greater concern, with current forecasts pointing to a similar cap level.

Despite recent moves by the Government to bring down the cost of energy, compared to winter 2020/21, the forecast represents an average energy bill that is £808 higher than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ofgem will make its final announcement of energy costs on 27 May.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“Energy companies have made more than £3 billion in profits in the last three months on their UK operations and energy bills are now set to rise.

“Households are being asked to absorb an increase driven entirely by conflict and instability in the Middle East, while the industry that profits from the volatile gas market continues to cash in.

“We are also now able to see the clear danger that will come in October if the cap stays at a similar level. If bills remain high when heating season begins, millions of households already in energy debt or struggling to keep their homes warm will face an extremely difficult winter.

“Households need reassurance and support, not a summer of suspense. That means the Government must act before winter to spell out what support will be available.”

“The only lasting answer to the seemingly permanent energy bills crisis is to reduce our dependence on gas and the volatile markets that drive our energy bills. That means boosting energy efficiency and renewables and every year we delay that transition is another year households pay the price.”

Dr Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, said:

“Short-term support can protect the most vulnerable households, but it won’t address the underlying problem.

“While Government’s plans, such as proposals to decouple electricity prices from gas, are well-intentioned, and in time they could make a small difference, gas is still likely to set the price the majority of the time, so consumers won’t feel a substantial change.

“Building out our renewable capacity is the only real path to bills that aren’t as exposed to events thousands of miles away. It won’t be cheap, and bills will not see an immediate drop, but that is the direction of travel if we want genuine, lasting stability.”

Oil prices surge as energy industry profits machine runs at full speed

Oil prices have surged past the $120 a barrel barrier and gas futures have started to climb again, as the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global energy supplies.

The latest market turbulence comes as BP and TotalEnergies this week reported bumper first-quarter profits, with both companies signalling that even larger gains are expected in the months ahead.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“As oil prices surge, the energy industry’s profit machine is running at full speed.

“BP has reported underlying profits of £2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, more than double the same period last year, while TotalEnergies has posted £4 billion in adjusted net income for the same three months.

“The energy industry is waiting for even more gains to come, as rising oil and gas prices feed through into second-quarter earnings.

“What makes this worse is that gas prices, which had shown some signs of easing in recent weeks, are now climbing again. UK gas futures are now 52% higher than this time last year, pushing up the wholesale prices that feed directly into household energy bills. This is not a temporary blip, it is the fossil fuel price rollercoaster in full motion, and millions of households will feel it in their bills.

“The case for Ministers using Windfall Tax revenues to help provide more emergency support for the households on heating oil and those least able to absorb these costs has never been stronger. But we also need to see the Government take faster action on electricity pricing reform to break the grip of gas markets on the bills of every family in the country.”

Households face a fresh energy bill threat as gas prices hit three-year high

Gas prices have soared to a three-year high and oil prices increased further as the Middle East conflict escalates.

Attacks on energy sites in Iran and Qatar were followed by threats from US President Donald Trump to “massively blow up” a key Iranian gas field.

UK natural gas prices spiked by more than 124% month-on-month and 65% up year-on-year, the highest level since the conflict escalated at the end of February. [1]

While the FTSE100 is trading down 1.9% shares in energy firms have risen, taking share price gains by these firms since the conflict started to close to 10%. [2]

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“These gas and oil prices haven’t been seen since the winter of 2022/23 when an Energy Price Guarantee was needed to protect households from the worst excesses of our exposure to global markets. The reality is that households will face a ‘Trump Tax’ on their energy bills as a result of this war and the case for Government action to support households is becoming impossible to ignore.

“We have written to Ministers with proposals to ensure support reaches the households most exposed to high energy costs first, while giving Government the ability to scale up help quickly if the crisis continues.

“That means immediate support for households relying on heating oil, LPG and other off-gas fuels, help for heat network customers facing rising commercial energy prices, and targeted reductions in energy bills from July when the price cap rises. It also means faster action on energy debt, stronger winter support through the Warm Home Discount and reformed Cold Weather Payments, and an overhaul of electricity pricing so households are not left paying more than they should.

“These are practical steps that can protect people now while complementing longer-term plans such as the Warm Homes Plan and moves to renewables, which are essential to bringing bills down for good.”

Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:

“This will be a major concern to bill payers, many of who are still carrying debt from the last gas crisis when Russia invaded Ukraine. That led to taxpayers having to step in essentially subsidising gas for millions of homes to the tune of tens of billions. And let’s be clear trying to squeeze more gas out of the North Sea has no real impact on the price households pay because its set by international markets and these kind of world events caused by foreign actors like Putin.

“Put simply, if you want to insulate yourself from these kind of price shocks, use less gas. British wind and solar farms lower our dependence on foreign gas, as do net zero technologies like electric heat pumps and this helps with bill stability. British wind power lowered wholesale prices by a third last year. These are permanent solutions, whereas the North Sea is a mature basin running out of oil and gas, quicker drilling means it runs out quicker.”

[1] Trading Economics, 0930 Thursday 19 March.

[2] Bloomberg data on End Fuel Poverty Coalition share price watch list of 15 listed firms involved in the UK energy sector.

Gas and heating oil prices spike as energy risks mount

The UK Natural Gas price has just hit a 12 month high and is still rising fast (as of 1300 GMT it is 13% up on 2025) as Qatar suspends LNG gas production and exports.

This will impact the energy price cap which takes effect on 1 July 2026. Heating oil is also at a 12 month high – 30% up year on year, which will be a concern to rural communities.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“Fresh highs in wholesale gas prices underline that UK households remain dangerously exposed to volatile global markets and that the UK’s own gas is running out. Within a few years we will no longer be able to meet heating demand from the North Sea, leaving families even more exposed to price shocks from abroad.

“As long as our energy bills remain dependent on gas, households will keep being hit by global price shocks. The most durable way to protect people is to cut demand through a nationwide insulation programme, invest in homegrown renewables and reform energy pricing so bills are no longer tied to volatile fossil fuel markets.

“At the same time, energy share prices are surging again. With industry lobbying the Treasury to end the Windfall Tax early, there is a real danger the crisis once again becomes a cash machine for the energy giants.

“Ministers must reject industry pressure and remember that a handful of energy firms have generated more than £125bn in UK profits since 2020.”

Households face 6.4% energy bills hike, but Warm Home Discounts to be expanded

Ofgem has announced the energy price cap for April to June is now set to rise by 6.4% from current levels meaning an average annual bill of £1,849 for households paying by direct debit.

This means the average household is set to pay over £800 more per year for their energy compared to winter 2020/21 – a 77% increase.

The Ofgem price cap means that energy firms should not charge more than the set rate for unit rates and daily standing charges for those on standard variable tariffs.

The cost of every unit of gas used will surge by over 10%, meaning the cost of gas is now double what it was in winter 2020/21.

Every unit of electricity will go up almost 9%. Around 97% of the time the cost of electricity is also driven by the price of gas due to the country’s energy system.

Also included in the small print is a clause that will allow energy suppliers to increase the profits (EBIT) made on every customer’s bill by 4.1% compared to the current quarter. The wider energy industry has already made £483bn in profit over the course of the energy bills crisis.

Taking into account price changes and government support over time, the total extra cost that the average household has had to find for their energy will reach £3,039 by the end of June 2025. [1]

Ministers have announced that the Warm Home Discount scheme will be expanded from winter 2025/26 to help an additional three million households while debt relief programmes will be improved following a consultation by Ofgem.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The soaring cost of gas is driving the current spike in energy bills and the only way out of the problem is to continue drives to improve our energy security and for the Chancellor to announce a £13.2bn, fully-funded, Warm Homes Plan in the Comprehensive Spending Review.

“But alongside the transition away from reliance on gas, it’s crucial to provide support for vulnerable households struggling with energy costs now.

“Ministers are right to be focused on improving the Warm Home Discount scheme and on energy debt, which continues at record levels because households have to find more even money to use the same amount of energy.

“The big question will be how do we pay for these improvements in support. Both Warm Home Discounts and debt relief are traditionally funded through our energy bills. Yet the energy industry makes billions of pounds in profit every year and it beggars belief that Ofgem is increasing the profit and headroom allowances for suppliers in the current climate.

“For now, the advice for households is to make the most of existing energy efficiency schemes and if customers do shop around for a lower energy bill, they must use their own energy usage on price comparison sites. Bills can vary greatly due to different rates for every unit of energy used and the daily standing charges so it pays to be aware of how these might affect the total bill.”

Caroline Simpson, Warm This Winter campaign manager, commented:

“Yet another price cap rise is devastating news but billpayers need to know it is caused because global gas prices are soaring due to factors outside of our control and profiteering energy giants such as Centrica and Norwegian-owned Equinor, the biggest supplier of gas to the UK, who make billions of pounds each year out of our misery.

“It is therefore crucial that the government presses on with plans to fix this broken system and boost our energy security by rapidly increasing our supply of homegrown clean energy to free us from expensive gas and bring down bills for everyone for good.

“This must come alongside reform of electricity markets, investment in energy efficiency in our homes and financial support with the cost of energy for the most vulnerable households.”

James Watson-O’Neill, Chief Executive of the national disability charity Sense, said:

“Yet another increase in the energy price cap – the third in a row – will dismay many disabled people.

“Disabled households are telling us they’re living in crisis. The need to power crucial equipment, such as feeding machines and hoists, means many disabled people have no choice but to use extra energy. Our research clearly shows that many disabled people with complex needs are already struggling to afford their energy bills, with more than two in five (42 per cent) telling us they can’t afford to keep their home warm enough.

“Disabled people are more likely to be in fuel poverty than non-disabled people, and we know it’s not just extra energy bills that can hit hard. There are also the extra costs associated with specialist diets, insurances, therapies and accessible transport that disabled people need to contend with. An increase in energy costs is the last thing disabled people need.

“There is no end in sight and disabled people cannot be left waiting any longer for targeted help with their energy bills. We need the government to urgently implement a social energy tariff, to help level the playing field for those who rely on energy-intensive equipment.”

ENDS

[1] Data for excess costs above winter 2020/21 baseline is available from our page on the Ofgem price cap.

Cap change date	Average household energy bill (GBP)	Amount above GBP1,042 per household (weighted for the number of months in price cap period)
01-Oct-20	£ 1,042	Baseline
01-Apr-21	£ 1,138	£ 48
01-Oct-21	£ 1,277	£ 118
01-Apr-22	£ 1,971	£ 465
01-Oct-22	£ 2,100	£ 529
01-Apr-23	£ 2,500	£ 365
01-Jul-23	£ 2,074	£ 258
01-Oct-23	£ 1,834	£ 198
01-Jan-24	£ 1,928	£ 222
01-Apr-24	£ 1,690	£ 162
01-Jul-24	£ 1,568	£ 132
01-Oct-24	£ 1,717	£ 169
01-Jan-25	£ 1,738	£ 174
TOTAL		£ 2,837
01-Apr-25	£ 1,849	£ 202
TOTAL		£ 3,039

Role of gas in the spotlight as energy prices set to rise

Forecasts reveal the energy bill price cap is set to rise yet again in April when Ofgem makes the next price cap announcement on 25th February.

Meanwhile analysis of the energy market prices show that the increasing average household cost of energy directly mirrors a trend-line of gas prices since July 2024. [1]

At the heart of the challenge is the system that sees electricity prices being set by the cost of gas up to 40% of the time under the marginal pricing rules.

With the cost of gas rising to a two year high in recent weeks, the over reliance on fossil fuels in the country’s energy system is continuing to cause distress in households.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“As volatile energy bills continue to be set by our reliance on global wholesale markets and driven by the cost of gas, it is even more vital that we see moves toward sustainable, cheaper, renewable energy.

“This of course needs to be combined with support for vulnerable households with their energy bills and investment in helping people make their homes more energy efficient – especially those living in low quality private rented homes.

“But until homes can be upgraded, consumers need to navigate a confusing array of energy tariffs. When comparing tariffs, customers must use their own energy usage and must not rely on industry averages as this may hide the true cost a household will pay.

“Customers also need to look out for exit fees which may trap you into uncompetitive tariffs in the future. And, if a household is interested in moving to a ‘tracker’ style tariff, it is even more important to make sure you look at your own usage, the unit costs and the standing charges and check that they will offer you real value for money.”

The current gas price surge is driven by the conflict in Ukraine, a colder than expected European winter and volatile wholesale markets operated by city market traders.

Campaigners have claimed that the latest energy price forecasts show customers are being gaslighted by an industry that has made £483 billion in profits since 2020.

Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson said:

“It’s soul destroying that there will be another price cap rise. What billpayers don’t know is that even their electricity bills are chained to gas prices. This over reliance on gas – both for our heating and in setting the electricity price – is why we saw huge hikes in bills four years ago and now we are seeing prices set to rise again.

“Instead, the public are being told by some politicians that net zero and green policies are to blame which couldn’t be further from the truth and we need to stop gaslighting people.

“Our bills are high and the ones who benefit are greedy gas and oil companies who are making billions. That is why we desperately need to develop our own renewable energy sources as the only way to achieve lower prices and energy security for good.”

ENDS

[1] Raw data for chart as below.

Date	Gas price (USD/MMBtu)	Average annual energy bill (GBP)
Jul-24	2.04	1568.00
Aug-24	2.24	1568.00
Sep-24	2.32	1568.00
Oct-24	2.35	1717.00
Nov-24	2.82	1717.00
Dec-24	3.31	1717.00
Jan-25	3.95	1738.00
Feb-25	3.62	1738.00
Mar-25	Trend line	1738.00
Apr-25	Trend line	1846.00* or 1823.00**

Source for Natural Gas Prices: Bloomberg taken on closest working day to 17th of each month. Source for Energy Bill prices: Ofgem / *Guardian 18/2/25 **BBC 18/2/25