Households face 6.4% energy bills hike, but Warm Home Discounts to be expanded

Ofgem has announced the energy price cap for April to June is now set to rise by 6.4% from current levels meaning an average annual bill of £1,849 for households paying by direct debit.

This means the average household is set to pay over £800 more per year for their energy compared to winter 2020/21 – a 77% increase. 

The Ofgem price cap means that energy firms should not charge more than the set rate for unit rates and daily standing charges for those on standard variable tariffs.

The cost of every unit of gas used will surge by over 10%, meaning the cost of gas is now double what it was in winter 2020/21. 

Every unit of electricity will go up almost 9%. Around 40% of the time the cost of electricity is also driven by the price of gas due to the country’s energy system.

Also included in the small print is a clause that will allow energy suppliers to increase the profits (EBIT) made on every customer’s bill by 4.1% compared to the current quarter. The wider energy industry has already made £483bn in profit over the course of the energy bills crisis.

Taking into account price changes and government support over time, the total extra cost that the average household has had to find for their energy will reach £3,039 by the end of June 2025. [1]

Ministers have announced that the Warm Home Discount scheme will be expanded from winter 2025/26 to help an additional three million households while debt relief programmes will be improved following a consultation by Ofgem.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The soaring cost of gas is driving the current spike in energy bills and the only way out of the problem is to continue drives to improve our energy security and for the Chancellor to announce a £13.2bn, fully-funded, Warm Homes Plan in the Comprehensive Spending Review.

“But alongside the transition away from reliance on gas, it’s crucial to provide support for vulnerable households struggling with energy costs now.

“Ministers are right to be focused on improving the Warm Home Discount scheme and on energy debt, which continues at record levels because households have to find more even money to use the same amount of energy.

“The big question will be how do we pay for these improvements in support. Both Warm Home Discounts and debt relief are traditionally funded through our energy bills. Yet the energy industry makes billions of pounds in profit every year and it beggars belief that Ofgem is increasing the profit and headroom allowances for suppliers in the current climate.

“For now, the advice for households is to make the most of existing energy efficiency schemes and if customers do shop around for a lower energy bill, they must use their own energy usage on price comparison sites. Bills can vary greatly due to different rates for every unit of energy used and the daily standing charges so it pays to be aware of how these might affect the total bill.”

Caroline Simpson, Warm This Winter campaign manager, commented:

“Yet another price cap rise is devastating news but billpayers need to know it is caused because global gas prices are soaring due to factors outside of our control and profiteering energy giants such as Centrica and Norwegian-owned Equinor, the biggest supplier of gas to the UK, who make billions of pounds each year out of our misery.

“It is therefore crucial that the government presses on with plans to fix this broken system and boost our energy security by rapidly increasing our supply of homegrown clean energy to free us from expensive gas and bring down bills for everyone for good.

“This must come alongside reform of electricity markets, investment in energy efficiency in our homes and financial support with the cost of energy for the most vulnerable households.”

James Watson-O’Neill, Chief Executive of the national disability charity Sense, said:

“Yet another increase in the energy price cap – the third in a row – will dismay many disabled people.

“Disabled households are telling us they’re living in crisis. The need to power crucial equipment, such as feeding machines and hoists, means many disabled people have no choice but to use extra energy. Our research clearly shows that many disabled people with complex needs are already struggling to afford their energy bills, with more than two in five (42 per cent) telling us they can’t afford to keep their home warm enough.

“Disabled people are more likely to be in fuel poverty than non-disabled people, and we know it’s not just extra energy bills that can hit hard. There are also the extra costs associated with specialist diets, insurances, therapies and accessible transport that disabled people need to contend with. An increase in energy costs is the last thing disabled people need.

“There is no end in sight and disabled people cannot be left waiting any longer for targeted help with their energy bills. We need the government to urgently implement a social energy tariff, to help level the playing field for those who rely on energy-intensive equipment.”

ENDS

[1] Data for excess costs above winter 2020/21 baseline is available from our page on the Ofgem price cap.

Cap change date Average household energy bill (GBP) Amount above GBP1,042 per household (weighted for the number of months in price cap period)
01-Oct-20 £    1,042 Baseline 
01-Apr-21 £    1,138 £                                48
01-Oct-21 £    1,277 £                              118
01-Apr-22 £    1,971 £                              465
01-Oct-22 £    2,100 £                              529
01-Apr-23 £    2,500 £                              365
01-Jul-23 £    2,074 £                              258
01-Oct-23 £    1,834 £                              198
01-Jan-24 £    1,928 £                              222
01-Apr-24 £    1,690 £                              162
01-Jul-24 £    1,568 £                              132
01-Oct-24 £    1,717 £                              169
01-Jan-25 £    1,738 £                              174
TOTAL   £                           2,837
01-Apr-25 £    1,849 £                              202
TOTAL   £                    3,039

 

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Role of gas in the spotlight as energy prices set to rise

Forecasts reveal the energy bill price cap is set to rise yet again in April when Ofgem makes the next price cap announcement on 25th February.

Meanwhile analysis of the energy market prices show that the increasing average household cost of energy directly mirrors a trend-line of gas prices since July 2024. [1]

Graph showing a trend that sees average uk household energy bills follow the cost of global gas prices.

At the heart of the challenge is the system that sees electricity prices being set by the cost of gas up to 40% of the time under the marginal pricing rules.

With the cost of gas rising to a two year high in recent weeks, the over reliance on fossil fuels in the country’s energy system is continuing to cause distress in households.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“As volatile energy bills continue to be set by our reliance on global wholesale markets and driven by the cost of gas, it is even more vital that we see moves toward sustainable, cheaper, renewable energy.

“This of course needs to be combined with support for vulnerable households with their energy bills and investment in helping people make their homes more energy efficient – especially those living in low quality private rented homes.

“But until homes can be upgraded, consumers need to navigate a confusing array of energy tariffs. When comparing tariffs, customers must use their own energy usage and must not rely on industry averages as this may hide the true cost a household will pay.

“Customers also need to look out for exit fees which may trap you into uncompetitive tariffs in the future. And, if a household is interested in moving to a ‘tracker’ style tariff, it is even more important to make sure you look at your own usage, the unit costs and the standing charges and check that they will offer you real value for money.”

The current gas price surge is driven by the conflict in Ukraine, a colder than expected European winter and volatile wholesale markets operated by city market traders. 

Campaigners have claimed that the latest energy price forecasts show customers are being gaslighted by an industry that has made £483 billion in profits since 2020.

Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson said:

“It’s soul destroying that there will be another price cap rise. What billpayers don’t know is that even their electricity bills are chained to gas prices. This over reliance on gas – both for our heating and in setting the electricity price – is why we saw huge hikes in bills four years ago and now we are seeing prices  set to rise again.

“Instead, the public are being told by some politicians that net zero and green policies are to blame which couldn’t be further from the truth and we need to stop gaslighting people.

“Our bills are high and the ones who benefit are greedy gas and oil companies who are making billions. That is why we desperately need to develop our own renewable energy sources as the only way to achieve lower prices and energy security for good.”

ENDS

[1] Raw data for chart as below.

Date Gas price (USD/MMBtu) Average annual energy bill (GBP)
Jul-24 2.04 1568.00
Aug-24 2.24 1568.00
Sep-24 2.32 1568.00
Oct-24 2.35 1717.00
Nov-24 2.82 1717.00
Dec-24 3.31 1717.00
Jan-25 3.95 1738.00
Feb-25 3.62 1738.00
Mar-25 Trend line 1738.00
Apr-25 Trend line 1846.00* or
1823.00**

Source for Natural Gas Prices: Bloomberg taken on closest working day to 17th of each month. Source for Energy Bill prices: Ofgem / *Guardian 18/2/25 **BBC 18/2/25