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Ministers must learn lessons from the last energy crisis

The energy industry has warned that the UK must prepare now for another energy price shock as volatility in global fossil fuel markets continues.

In a new briefing, A Better Approach to Energy Bill Support, Energy UK says government should develop plans to support households if bills rise again later this year. Some analysts suggest typical annual energy costs could increase by around £300, with higher rises possible if global tensions continue.

The report argues that the UK should learn lessons from the last crisis, when universal support schemes cost more than £35bn. Instead, future support should be better targeted at households most in need, while any universal measures should focus on lowering electricity costs.

Energy UK is calling for a rapid taskforce involving government, industry and civil society to improve targeting systems and ensure support can be delivered quickly if prices rise again.

The warning comes as wider debate continues about how best to protect households from energy price shocks.

New analysis from the University of Oxford’s Smith School found that a fully renewable UK energy system could cut household energy bills by up to £441 a year. In contrast, maximising oil and gas extraction from the North Sea would save households between £16 and £82 a year, but these savings would only be realised if the tax revenues from extra drilling were redistributed directly to households.

Dr Anupama Sen, co-author of the analysis, said claims that North Sea drilling would significantly reduce household bills were “sheer fantasy”.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said:

“Energy prices are once again being driven by instability in global fossil fuel markets and households are being left exposed to the consequences.

“Millions of families are still recovering from the last energy crisis, with record levels of energy debt and many already struggling to afford today’s bills. Without action, another price spike could push even more households into fuel poverty.

“We support calls for the Government to convene a taskforce and prepare an emergency energy support framework that can protect those most at risk while prices remain volatile. That means targeted bill support, more help for households using LPG, heating oil and heat networks, plus urgent action to tackle the legacy of energy debt.

“But this crisis also reinforces the long-term lesson: as long as the UK remains dependent on expensive oil and gas, households will remain exposed to global shocks. That means we need action to bring down energy usage via building upgrades as well as action to bring down electricity prices through market reform and more renewables.”

Heating oil households to receive support as ministers consider market crackdown

The Prime Minister has announced a £53 million support package to help vulnerable households that rely on heating oil as global fossil fuel prices surge following conflict in the Middle East.

The Government says the funding will provide targeted support to households most exposed to rising costs, while also signalling that ministers may consider stronger regulation of the heating oil market. In England, it is expected to be available via the local authority-delivered Crisis Resilience Fund.

However, details on eligibility, delivery and how the scheme will operate across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have yet to be published.

Ministers have also signalled that stronger oversight of the heating oil market may be introduced, with the Competition and Markets Authority asked to monitor prices closely and act if companies exploit the current crisis.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“This announcement recognises that households who rely on heating oil are uniquely exposed to fossil fuel price shocks, the market lacks the consumer protections seen elsewhere in the energy system and government intervention is necessary when prices surge.

“The targeted support and steps towards stronger protections are welcome. However, the financial help announced today is relatively limited and will take time to reach households that are suffering now. We also need more details about eligibility and how the scheme will work in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

“If prices remain high ministers will need to go further with a stronger Alternative Fuel Support Scheme to ensure off-gas-grid households – including those in park homes, care homes and on heat networks – are properly supported.

“The longer-term solution must be helping oil-heated homes to move away from expensive fossil fuels through insulation, alternative heating systems, heat pumps and community energy so households are not repeatedly exposed to global energy shocks.

“We would also urge Ministers to talk to charities, advice providers and experts now about the measures that may be needed from 1 July after the current price cap protection ends.”

Caroline Abrahams CBE, charity director at Age UK, said:

“We welcome the Government’s recognition that households using heating oil require support, and it’s good that funding will be made available. However, we need to see the detail on how this will be delivered, and our strong sense is that £53 million is unlikely to match the scale of the challenge, given the number of households affected, many of them headed by older people who are already struggling with ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

“It’s also important to recognise that there are other groups of older people who are also facing immediate price rises – including some heat network consumers, park home residents and care home residents – who are not covered by this plan.

“For context, even before prices started rising because of the war, nationally representative polling commissioned for Age UK found that this winter one in three people aged 66+ (35%) – around 4.2 million – had recently cut back on heating or powering their homes. The clear implication is that many older people simply cannot cope with another increase in energy costs.

“We believe the Government should go further than has been announced today. Local authorities need sufficient resources and flexibility to respond quickly when people face sudden financial crises, and the scale of support on offer must reflect the level of need we’re seeing among older households.”

Government warns suppliers over heating oil prices

The cost of heating oil has surged sharply over the past two weeks as conflict in the Middle East pushes global oil markets higher.

Data suggests that the cost of filling a heating oil tank has doubled in less than 14 days. [1]

Unlike households using gas or electricity, homes heated by oil are not protected by the energy price cap, meaning global price shocks are felt almost immediately.

Around 1.5 million households across the UK rely on heating oil, with particularly high levels in rural areas and in Northern Ireland where the majority of homes use oil for heating.

In the past 48 hours, ministers have signalled growing concern about the impact of rising oil prices on household bills.

During a visit to Belfast, the Prime Minister warned heating oil suppliers that prices must be “fair, transparent and justifiable”, saying the Government “will not tolerate profiteering” as global tensions push energy costs higher.

The Government has also asked the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to keep heating oil prices under close scrutiny alongside petrol and diesel prices.

Separately, the Chancellor and Energy Secretary have held talks with fuel retailers in Downing Street, warning companies not to exploit global instability by increasing margins.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“It is right that the Government is asking the Competition and Markets Authority to keep a close eye on heating oil prices as global tensions drive up costs.

“Homes that rely on heating oil sit completely outside the energy price cap. That means as global oil markets spike, families in rural and off-grid homes have seen the costs they are expected to pay more than double in less than two weeks.

“While transparency and scrutiny are essential to ensure households are not being overcharged, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Government may have to act in the weeks ahead to provide further protections and support for these households. Longer term, the lesson is clear: leaving so many homes dependent on volatile fossil fuel markets exposes them to repeated price shocks.”

[1] Data from BoilerJuice shows a price of 63.1p per litre on 1 March has risen to 128.1p per litre on 13 March.

Fossil fuel price spike could cost UK more than entire net zero transition

The UK could face far greater costs from future fossil fuel price shocks than from the transition to clean energy, according to new analysis from the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

The independent climate advisers say a single energy price spike similar to the one triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 could cost the UK economy around £222 billion, roughly double the total net cost of moving to net zero between now and 2050.

The findings come as oil and gas prices have surged again since the start of the American / Israeli attacks on Iran and conflict in the Middle East, underlining the risks of relying on globally traded fossil fuels.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said:

“Households have already learned the hard way that fossil fuel price shocks come with a very real cost.

“With oil and gas prices already surging again because of the conflict in the Middle East, families are being reminded just how exposed the country remains to volatile global markets. If these higher prices persist, we are likely to see a fresh hike in energy bills from 1 July as the impact feeds through to the next price cap.

“It remains to be seen how severe the current price spike will be for households, but it underlines that the only lasting protection is to cut our reliance on fossil fuels through better insulated homes, homegrown renewable energy and fairer energy pricing so bills are no longer dictated by global gas markets.”

Scrapping home upgrade funding could leave households at greater risk

The leadership of Reform staged a petrol station stunt promising cheaper fuel and energy bills by attacking what they call “green levies” which are used to long-term heating and energy efficiency programmes.

As global gas prices surge following the conflict with Iran, the stunt highlights how Britain’s continued dependence on oil and gas leaves households exposed to global price shocks.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, which campaigns to lower home energy costs, said:

“Scrapping support for heat pumps and energy efficiency programmes would lock the country into a continued cycle of high energy prices and fuel poverty.

“The reason households are facing rising costs today is because the country remains heavily dependent on oil and gas whose prices are set on volatile global markets.

“As the conflict in the Middle East shows, when tensions rise anywhere in the world the price of gas quickly follows. That is what pushes up energy bills, not investment in cleaner heating.

“The real way to cut bills for working people is to reduce the amount of gas we burn through better insulated homes, expand homegrown renewable power and reform energy pricing so households are no longer exposed to constant gas price shocks.

Robert Palmer, deputy director of campaign group Uplift, added:

“It’s clear that the only route to lower bills and secure energy is to free ourselves from oil and gas through homegrown renewable energy and upgrading homes, whether that’s with solar panels or heat pumps. This is just common sense in today’s world

“New North Sea drilling will make no difference to UK energy bills and have no meaningful impact on the UK’s supply of gas.”

Scottish public back the energy Windfall Tax in new poll

Twice as many people in Scotland (41%) support the Windfall Tax than oppose it (19%), with support cutting across all political parties and across all parts of the country, according to new polling. [1]

The Windfall Tax (Energy Profits Levy) was levied on oil and gas companies operating in the UK in May 2022 in response to record oil and gas industry profits and the rapid increase in energy costs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

In recent days, wholesale energy costs have surged 30% year on year as a result of conflict in the Middle East and sit at levels last seen in winter 2022/23. [2]

Energy firms have seen their share prices rise over 7% in the last month (compared to the FTSE 100 rise of 0.43%). This includes North Sea operators who have lobbied heavily to scrap the windfall tax. [3]

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said: 

“Despite the intense lobbying by the oil and gas industry – and their political allies – the Windfall Tax retains the support of the public.

“It’s no surprise that twice as many Scots are in favour of the tax than oppose it and nearly a fifth say that they strongly support the measure.

“As long as people see the disparity between their own living conditions and the huge profits made by energy firms, this support will continue.”

The survey, carried out by Survation, spoke to over two thousand adults in Scotland in a poll that reflects the political make-up of the nation’s voters.

It revealed that Scottish voters from all parties supported the windfall tax.

Support for the windfall tax is highest among people intending to use their Holyrood list vote for the SNP (48%), Labour (53%), Liberal Democrat (61%) and Green (47%). Conservative and Reform UK voters were more likely to support the tax than oppose it (Conservatives 37% support, 34% oppose; Reform UK 32% support, 30% oppose). Similar results were found among constituency voting intention.

Frazer Scott, Chief Executive of Energy Action Scotland, commented:

“Energy companies continue to make excessive profits at the expense of people. People who cannot heat their homes to a safe level and are burdened by £5.5bn of unrepayable domestic energy debt. Until there is reform that puts people at the heart of the energy system it is right for big business to put its fair share back to help those that need it most.”

Jamie Livingstone, Head of Oxfam Scotland, said: 

“People aren’t daft; they know that the companies that have polluted our politics and plundered our planet shouldn’t be let off the hook for the spiralling climate destruction they continue to cause. 

“Energy giants have racked up years of eye-watering profits. Politicians must ensure they pick up more, not less of the tab for the shift to a clean energy future instead of leaving hard pressed Scots and communities globally facing famine and floods to foot the bill. Fossil fuel companies helped light the fire, continue to fuel it, so it’s only fair they help pay to put it out.” 

Friends of the Earth Scotland oil and gas campaigns manager Rosie Hampton commented:

“With the conflict in the Middle East, energy companies could again be making the windfall profits that have caused the cost-of-living pain and suffering in the last five years. People will be rightly worried about household energy bills soaring again as greedy oil giants capitalise on the violence. 

“We must not forget that this tax will go to supporting the NHS, educating children and protecting our environment so any politician calling for the tax to end are demanding less support for vital public services.”

Previous End Fuel Poverty Coalition research found that just a handful of energy firms have made around £40 billion in UK profits in the last two years, even with the Energy Profits Levy in place.

The Government has committed to phasing out the tax by 2030 to be replaced by a new tax regime for the sector.

ENDS

[1] Survation asked over 2,000 Scots:

An Energy Profits Levy (EPL) or ‘Windfall Tax’ was levied on oil and gas companies operating in the UK in May 2022 in response to record oil and gas industry profits and the rapid increase in energy costs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is due to be in place until 2030. Do you support or oppose, or neither support nor oppose, the current windfall tax on oil and gas company profits?

  • Fieldwork Dates Fieldwork: 10th February – 17th February 2026
  • Full details are available from the Survation website.
  • FULL RESULTS
    • Strongly support the Windfall Tax 19%
    • Tend to support 22%
    • Neither support nor oppose 27%
    • Tend to oppose 11%
    • Strongly oppose 8%
    • Don’t know 13%
    • NET: Support (Strongly+Tend to) 41%
    • NET: Oppose (Strongly+Tend to) 19%
    • Weighted total: 2005 respondents 
  • Method – The survey was conducted via Online Panel. Different response rates from different demographic groups were taken into account.
  • Population Sampled: Adults aged 16+ in Scotland. Sample Size 2,005. 
  • Data Weighting: Data are weighted to the profile of Scotland. Data was weighted by respondent’s sex, age, region, and past vote (2014 referendum, 2016 referendum, 2021 Scottish parliamentary election, 2024 general election). Targets for the weighted data are derived from the ONS.
  • Margin of Error Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant. For example, in a question where 50% of respondents (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, with a sample of 2005 it is 95% certain that the ‘true’ value will fall within the range of 2.33% from the sample result. Subsamples from cross-breaks will be subject to higher margin of error. Conclusions drawn from crossbreaks with very small sub-samples should be treated with caution.
  • Polling available to download as an .xls here.

[2] Trading Economics Data as at 6 March 0900. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas 

[3] Profits data from https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/news/energy-firm-profits-tracker/.

Share price data from Bloomberg 6 March 0900, data as at close of business on 4 March. 10 energy firms listed on London Stock Exchange are monitored through a watchlist and prices compared to 8 February. These firms represent a mix of producers, suppliers, traders and supply chain in both fossil fuel and renewable sectors. Within this, specific surge examples include Ithaca Energy (+15%), Harbour Energy (+13%) and BP (+4%) all rising strongly in the immediate aftermath of the American / Israeli attacks on Iran. Harbour rose from 242.4 on 25 Feb to 274.8 on 3 March. Ithaca 213.5 to 245.5. BP 470.25 to 488.20.

Heating oil prices surge as conflict pushes up costs for off-gas homes

The cost of heating oil continues to surge due to the Middle East conflict, now hitting levels not seen since the early days of the Ukraine invasion. Reports from some customers suggest that 1,000 litres now costs almost £985, compared to £670 in January.

During the height of the last price spike, the government recognised that off-gas-grid homes were exposed to fuel price spikes and weren’t covered by the Energy Price Guarantee, so it introduced the separate Alternative Fuel Payment – a £200 one-off payment for households using fuels such as heating oil, LPG or biomass.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said

“Households that rely on heating oil are often some of the most exposed to global fossil fuel price shocks because they sit outside the energy price cap.

“These homes are also those that are among the deepest fuel poverty as the cost of home improvements which could help reduce the cost of energy can be prohibitive.

“This means that when overseas conflicts send oil prices soaring, the cost of heating for families in rural and off-grid homes can jump almost overnight.

“While other households are protected by the energy price cap for now, homes heated by oil are starting to suffer now and may need urgent support.

“This is another harsh reminder that relying on volatile fossil fuel markets leaves households vulnerable. The long-term answer has to be looking at alternative heating systems and creating warmer homes by supporting people who need to improve energy efficiency.”

Meanwhile early signs suggest energy suppliers are once again increasing exit fees on fixed tariffs.

These charges, which households must pay if they leave a fixed deal early, surged during the last energy crisis as suppliers tried to protect themselves from volatile wholesale markets. In some cases exit fees climbed to more than £100 per fuel, making it expensive for households to move supplier even when cheaper deals became available.

Campaigners warn the same pattern could now be repeating. If exit fees rise again, households who fix their tariff to gain certainty could find themselves stuck in poor value deals or tied to suppliers providing weak customer service, simply because the cost of leaving becomes too high.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition told the Telegraph:

“Every time the global gas market starts to spike, exit fees creep up. What should be a simple choice about fixing your bill risks becoming a trap that locks households into expensive deals or with poor customer service. Ofgem should act quickly to implement an exit fee ceiling to help protect consumers.”

Energy bills set to rise again in summer as global gas tensions bite

As conflict in the Middle East continues and Qatari production of LNG gas unlikely to restart soon, analysts at Cornwall Insight expects that energy bills will increase from 1 July by 10% to around £1,800 for the average household.

Members of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition predict that this will be at the lower end of predictions, if the conflict is not resolved in the coming days. After falling back from early morning extreme highs during trading yesterday, gas prices are sitting 26% up year-on-year (as at 0930 5 March).

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The latest projections are devastating for households who had been expecting some relief on energy bills.

“Summer normally brings some respite for households because wholesale prices tend to ease as heating demand falls. So the prospect of bills rising by around 10% in July is a worrying sign that global tensions are once again feeding directly into energy costs.

“If these forecasts prove correct, the increase would wipe out the savings delivered by the Budget and pile even more pressure onto families already struggling. Energy debt is already at record levels, and millions of people remain in cold, damp homes after years of high bills.

“The deeper problem is that the UK is still dangerously exposed to volatile fossil fuel markets. As long as our energy system remains tied to global gas prices, shocks like this will continue to hit household finances.

“At the same time the energy industry stands to benefit from the crisis. It’s obscene that as bumper profits are predicted from the fresh energy crisis, some are calling for an early end to the Windfall Tax.

“Ministers must ensure the system works for consumers, not just for the fossil fuel giants, and deliver more homegrown renewables, better insulated homes and fairer energy pricing.”

Scottish Ministers step up attacks on energy Windfall Tax

The debate over the UK’s windfall tax on oil and gas companies has reignited after Scotland’s First Minister called for the levy to be scrapped. He joins his Scottish Government colleagues in putting pressure on UK ministers after lobbying from the energy industry.

Citing uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East, John Swinney said the Energy Profits Levy is harming investment and jobs. But with global gas prices rising again (57% increase month on month as per market data at 1400 on 4 March) and energy companies continuing to post strong profits, campaigners argue weakening the tax would not help households already struggling with high bills.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“Conflict in the Middle East and rising global gas prices show exactly why the Windfall Tax remains necessary, not why it should be scrapped. When geopolitical tensions push up prices, energy companies and their shareholders benefit while households face another round of higher bills from 1 July.

“Energy firms have made tens of billions in UK profits in recent years even with the Energy Profits Levy in place, so the idea that removing it will suddenly make energy cheaper or more secure simply doesn’t stand up. The North Sea is declining because of the geology of an ageing basin, not because companies are paying a fair share of tax.

“Instead of handing the industry a tax break, governments should be using these revenues to cut bills, tackle energy debt, support workers through the transition and invest in warm homes and clean energy so households are protected from exactly this kind of global price shock.”

Politicians debate Spring Statement as energy risks still loom

Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her Spring Statement to defend the Government’s economic plan after the Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded near-term growth forecasts.

But against a backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East and renewed volatility in global energy markets, the statement did nothing to reassure households.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said

“Away from the hot air generated by politicians in Westminster today, households will be watching the news to see how the latest conflict hits their energy bills.

“Time and again we see how global tensions push up fossil fuel prices, driving costs higher and squeezing living standards. Yet while families face that uncertainty, energy giants have generated more than £125bn in UK profits since 2020.

“The Chancellor is right in her Spring Statement that the world has become more uncertain, with one of the biggest risks to family finances being the over-exposure to volatile oil and gas markets.

“If the Government is serious about tackling the cost of living and strengthening economic resilience, it must accelerate investment in homegrown renewables, roll out a nationwide insulation programme and reform energy pricing so bills are no longer tied to fossil fuel volatility.

“In an unstable world where the UK’s own gas fields will not be able to meet demand in the years to come, energy security and affordable energy are two sides of the same coin.”