Energy Security Archives - End Fuel Poverty Coalition

Wind power set for further investment

The government has unveiled its long-awaited Contracts for Difference “AR7 budget” for offshore wind, with £900 million for fixed projects and £180 million for floating wind.

The announcement comes as new UCL research shows wind power has already saved UK consumers billions, cutting wholesale prices and shielding homes from volatile gas markets.

Yet with strike prices of £113/MWh for fixed wind and £271/MWh for floating, concerns remain that bills may increase, while ministers insist that the government “won’t buy at any price.”

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The North Sea is running out of gas and new gas power plants could take the best part of a decade to even get off the ground. Britain simply can’t rely on fossil fuels for its energy security.

“That’s why renewables are so important. They cut our dependence on gas imports and prices and create jobs where they’re needed most. But this transition has to be managed fairly.

“The public deserve to clearly see how they benefit, through lower electricity prices, greater transparency on how the strike prices work, and clear profit caps that ensure developers don’t cash in at consumers’ expense.”

Blair Institute’s ‘reset’ plan risks powering delay, not progress

A new report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change backs calls for a “reset” of the UK’s electricity strategy, but critics warn it could play into the hands of those seeking to slow down clean-power investment.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition welcomed “any serious discussion about how to make our energy transition smarter, faster and fairer,” but also commented:

“Given that by 2027 the North Sea will no longer be able to provide enough gas to heat our homes, this report must not become a pretext to delay vital moves to improve energy security and bring down bills.

“Scrapping contracts for green power, weakening support for renewables or backing away from decisive grid upgrades will continue to keep households locked into volatile fossil-fuel markets and higher bills.

“The report’s conclusions also raise questions about the Tony Blair Institute’s funding and affiliations. As reported by The Guardian, the Institute has received financial support from governments and entities linked to fossil fuel-producing states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”

Ed Matthew, UK programme director for the independent climate change think tank E3G said:

“The only solution to get off the gas price rollercoaster is to get off gas.

“Our research shows that it is possible for the Government to reach its 2030 clean power target whilst reducing electricity bills by more than £200.

“But that requires urgent action by government to implement cost cutting policies, including moving levies off electricity bills into the Exchequer [general taxation].”

Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), added: “The public may be more interested in their energy bills than what percentage of clean power the UK reaches in 2030, but renewables are already lowering wholesale power prices by around a quarter, or £25 per megawatt hour.”

Energy bosses warn of further bill increases in evidence to MPs

Electricity prices could increase by a fifth, according to evidence given to MPs by energy company bosses.

The “big six” energy suppliers were questioned by the House of Commons Energy Security and Net Zero Select Committee about energy bills.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“It’s highly concerning that energy bosses have painted such a bleak outlook for energy bills in coming years.

“With over 12 million households struggling with the cost of heating and energy debt at record levels, it’s clear that electricity pricing must be fairer, standing charges reduced and that the Government must look at how any vital investment in energy infrastructure is paid for.

“Ministers and the regulator should set out a clear long-term pathway so that the public knows what the fixed costs of the grid are likely to be, what schemes will be available to help improve energy efficiency and what financial support will be in place to help those in fuel poverty.

“The nation’s energy system is going through huge changes to improve energy security, meet demand* and bring down the cost of generating energy. But as this change happens, the Government mustn’t forget about households struggling through a fifth winter of high bills.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition’s written evidence to MPs on the Committee Inquiry [pdf] highlighted how the energy system is unfair by design — with standing charges, supplier failures and gas-linked pricing hitting low-income households hardest.

The evidence recommended:

Fairer pricing that reflects cheap renewables
A fully funded £13.2bn Warm Homes Plan
Social tariffs & lower standing charges
A regulator that prioritises bringing down energy bills

*Even the lowest prediction by the National Energy System Operator suggests that electricity demand will increase by 93% between now and 2050.

Gas and electricity winter outlook highlights fragile energy security

A new report from National Gas that reveals a decline in Britain’s gas storage capacity, driven by the shutdown of the Rough site which is owned by Centrica, increases the UK’s reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) during periods of high demand.

Recent deals struck by Centrica means the firm controls c.10% of gas needs and also now owns the Grain LNG import facility in Kent.

The National Energy System Operator’s winter outlook report suggests that electricity supplies for the winter looked mostly healthy, but with a risk of some “tight days”.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:
“Britain’s energy security should never depend on the commercial decisions of one private company. Yet with Centrica controlling vital gas infrastructure and imports, the country is now exposed to their boardroom choices.

“By refusing to refill Rough ahead of winter, Centrica has effectively weakened one of Britain’s key defences against cold snaps and price spikes. This leaves households more reliant on expensive imported gas and more vulnerable to market volatility.

“This also highlights that, even if new gas fields are approved, the North Sea will be unable to produce enough gas to cover our home heating needs by 2027 – leaving the country reliant on imports.

“The Government must not leave our energy security to chance.

“Alongside treating gas storage as critical national infrastructure, we also need to continue the shift away from gas by investing in homegrown renewable power – so we’re no longer at the mercy of fossil fuel markets.

“But to support this shift, we must also ensure the electricity system is ready and reform electricity pricing. While National Grid expects sufficient capacity this winter, there will still be tight days where supply and demand are finely balanced. Expanding renewables and electricity supply is essential if we are to meet future demand from cleaner heating and ensure a secure, affordable energy system for all.”

Scrapping UK climate law will not reduce energy bills

Plans by the Conservative Party to replace the Climate Change Act have come under fire for locking Britain into costly gas imports at a time when North Sea reserves are rapidly running out.

Environmental groups also condemned the move, with the E3G think tank describing it as “a monstrous act of economic and environmental vandalism.”

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“Kemi Badenoch says that the Conservatives want to put ‘economic growth and cheap energy first’, but there is no way to lower bills or energy security by prolonging our dependence on gas.

“By 2027, the UK will not be able to produce enough gas to heat our homes. And, even if new gas fields are approved, by 2050 the country will be left almost entirely reliant on gas imports as the level of reserves in the North Sea gas basin continues to deplete.

“Keeping households hooked on gas – which we will have to import at global prices from countries such as Trump’s America and Qatar – will only increase the profits of global firms and increase the misery of people unable to afford the sky-high prices.”

Labour Party conference ends with focus on energy bills

The Energy Secretary has announced initiatives to try and bring down energy bills, boost green jobs and ban fracking at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool.

On the day that the average energy bill rose by 2.21% year-on-year rise (now 68% or £713 a year higher than in the winter of 2020-21), Government ministers have pointed to the work to deliver more renewables and “in the coming weeks” an announcement on the biggest home upgrade programme in British history.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“The Government is right to fight for homegrown, clean energy. The North Sea is running dry – even with new fields, the UK won’t produce enough gas to heat our homes by 2027. What’s more, fracking is unsafe, unpopular and unable to meaningfully reduce energy bills.

“So ramping up clean power is the only way to bring our bills down in the long term while providing a secure energy future.

“But as we approach a fifth winter of the energy bills crisis, households are struggling to cope with bills which remain hundreds of pounds a year above where they were in winter 2020/21 and energy debt is now at record levels. Meanwhile, new analysis from the Common Wealth think tank suggests that around 24% of every household energy bill is taken as profit by the energy industry.

“This is why we need action to provide more support to those who need it the most alongside improved energy efficiency and lower bills for households now.”

Trump’s fossil fuel fantasy won’t cut UK energy bills

Donald Trump has reignited his war on popular wind power during his UK state visit and urging Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to exploit North Sea gas.

At a joint press conference, the US President repeated his “drill, baby, drill” mantra, while Sir Keir struck a more cautious note, stressing a “pragmatic” mix of fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear in the UK’s energy future.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The President remains steadfast in towing the line of his fossil fuel backers who are gaslighting the British public about our energy future.

“The truth is, the North Sea is running out of gas – we have burned most of it. By 2027 it won’t even produce enough to heat our homes and only 14% of its original reserves remain commercially viable.

“No amount of bluster about drilling or fracking will bring back cheap gas, all it does is lock households into more reliance on volatile global gas markets.

“The UK is leading the way and showing the world that scaling up renewables and upgrading homes is the fastest, cheapest route to lower bills and lasting energy security.

“Of course we need to go further to bring down bills by reforming electricity pricing, but this won’t be achieved by importing Donald Trump’s fossil fuel agenda.”

North Sea gas unable to meet national heating needs from 2027

The country will no longer be able to meet heating demand using only domestically extracted gas by 2027, even if new fields are approved, according to new analysis of official North Sea production data.

Official data shows that by 2027, UK gas production is set to fall short of what’s needed just to heat our homes, which currently accounts for 38% of UK gas use. In just two years’ time, more than two-thirds of the UK’s gas needs will be dependent on imports. [1]

The figures provide a clear warning that the North Sea is running out of gas.

Even if new fields are approved, it won’t be enough to reverse the trend and the UK would still be almost entirely (94%) reliant on imports by 2050.

Experts say this has nothing to do with politics or policy — it’s the geological reality after half a century of drilling. Of all the gas estimated to have been in the North Sea basin, just 14% remains commercially viable according to official statistics. [2]

Even the lobbyists working for the North Sea industry admit that the financial viability of any additional extraction is “beyond realistic assumptions” and would only be possible with “major industry change.” [3]

Gas extracted from the North Sea is usually sold on international markets, which also leaves UK consumers subject to volatile prices. But even if the UK took the drastic step of only supplying its national needs, the trend data shows that at current levels of UK demand, existing fields hold just over three years of gas. New fields would add less than half a year.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The geological reality is that the North Sea basin is dying and there are limited levels of gas for home heating left. The country is simply running out of gas and no amount of new drilling will stop Britain’s deepening dependency on foreign gas.

“The sooner households are supported to move to alternative heating and cooking systems the better.

“But what’s worse right now is that some politicians are dangerously misleading the public by overstating the North Sea’s continuing role in UK energy security.”

Recent polling by Uplift found that around two-fifths (41%) of the public mistakenly believe that there is enough gas left to significantly reduce or eliminate gas imports. [4]

Donald Trump recently claimed there’s a “century of drilling” left in the North Sea. Nigel Farage says the UK should be “self-sufficient” in gas and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has alleged that gas will power Britain “for generations”.

Tessa Khan, executive director at Uplift commented: “Politicians are deliberately and dangerously misleading the public into thinking this country has a secure energy supply in the North Sea, when it is clear we do not.

“The hard truth is that, after 60 years of drilling, the UK has burned most of its gas and no amount of new drilling will change that. Our reliance on foreign gas is going to increase unless and until we shift to renewable energy, like wind, which we’re lucky to have in abundance.

“We cannot afford another decade of delay. Quite apart from the extra costs that households and businesses will incur from continuing to rely on volatile fossil fuels, and the damage they are causing to our climate, the UK’s energy workers need jobs that have a secure future.”

Polling previously found that two-thirds (67%) of the country are already concerned about the impact of the UK’s reliance on oil and gas.

ENDS

[1] Methodology and assumptions for analysis undertaken by the research team at Uplift on behalf of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition.

Residential gas demand is based on estimates from the Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget Balanced Net Zero Pathway (BNZP). If action is not taken to decarbonise in line with the CCC’s BNZP, then the CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget baseline scenario estimates for residential gas demand suggest that this inflection point will take place in 2026, instead of 2027.

NSTA production projections (March 2025) were used by researchers at Uplift to estimate gas import dependency in the UK through to 2050 under the CCC’s BNZP.

The nation’s gas import dependency is set to rise from 55% today to 68% in 2030, 85% in 2040, and 94% in 2050 — even if new fields like Rosebank, whose reserves are primarily oil destined for export, are given the green light. Even if new licenses were to be approved, the maximum they could reduce import dependency in any given year is again just 2%, meaning that gas import dependency would still soar to 83% in 2040 and 92% in 2050.

On an annual basis, the amounts of gas expected to be produced within already producing or sanctioned UKCS fields were compared against the amounts of gas required to meet UK demand under the Climate Change Committee’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway (as published within the NSTA’s projections).

This established what proportion of UK gas demand could be met by UKCS gas production without the development of new projects, with the remainder needing to be met by gas imports – thus providing a baseline estimate of UK gas import dependency.

This analysis assumes that all gas produced in the UK is used domestically, as estimates for the exportation rates of gas produced in the UKCS are unavailable. However, there is no guarantee that gas produced from UK fields will be used within the UK, and so this is likely to overestimate the amount of gas that will be used to meet UK demand.

As such, this analysis provides the most optimistic estimates of UK gas import dependency. In reality, gas import dependency levels will likely be higher.

To estimate how import dependency could change with the development of new North Sea fields, gas import dependency was recalculated accounting for the NSTA’s production projections for gas with the development of undeveloped discoveries.

To analyse the potential impacts of the Rosebank and Jackdaw projects, gas import dependency was recalculated accounting for the annual gas production estimates published in the Rosebank and Jackdaw Environmental Statements.

Production estimates from the Rosebank and Jackdaw Environment Statements provide the highest range of gas expected to be produced from these fields, which are necessary to assess the worst case environmental impacts. However, the mid case production profiles, which provide the most likely range for production from these fields, are lower. As such, the impacts of the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields on UK gas import dependency will be overstated.

[2] The UK has already extracted 86% of recoverable gas from the UKCS, leaving just 14%, most of which lies within existing fields (8% in existing fields, 1% in new fields, 2% in licensed but undeveloped, and the rest in unlicensed acreage). Based on data in: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/vtjkyqnf/uk-reserves-and-resources-report-as-at-end-2023.pdf

Expert commentary includes:

Andy Samuel, former head of the regulator, North Sea Transition Authority, has said “it’s unlikely, given [the North Sea is] a mature basin and the geology is well-known, that we’re suddenly going to have a situation where we are significantly growing production again.”
Former BP chief Lord Browne has said the decision by the previous government to expand North Sea drilling is “not going to make any difference” to Britain’s energy security and is “symbolic”.

[3] Westwood Global Energy Group “Potential of the UKCS under different scenarios” summary report on behalf of OEUK (June, 2025), p15.

[4] Polling commissioned by Uplift and conducted by Opinium in May 2025, with a representative sample of 2,050 UK adults.

Public reveal energy security fears as price cap increases

Three quarters (74%) of the public are worried about the global insecurity of energy prices over the next five years, according to new research for the Warm This Winter campaign. [1]

The figures found that two-thirds (67%) of the country are concerned about the impact of the UK’s reliance on oil and gas, while half (53%) are worried by the potential for the country not to build renewables fast enough over the next five years.

As the Ofgem price cap rises by 1.2% on 1 January 2025, four-fifths (79%) of the public are worried about the potential for further energy price rises over the next five years. Average energy bills remain around £700 a year above where they were in winter 2020/21.

The public’s fears are backed up by the latest predictions that show that energy bills are likely to rise again by around 3% in April 2025 and news that gas prices could rise again.

With households struggling through a fourth winter of the energy bills crisis, levels of energy debt have soared to record levels. Meanwhile 20 energy firms have made more than £483 billion in profits in recent years. [2]

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:

“The public have seen first hand the impact of the energy bills crisis – driven by the UK’s reliance on volatile energy markets.

“Millions of people are living in cold damp homes, unable to heat their homes to a safe temperature or racking up massive debts – with some even turning to loan sharks.

“To add insult to injury, around a quarter of what is spent on heating our draughty properties is wasted, because the UK’s old housing stock is some of the worst insulated in Europe.

“2025 will be a momentous year for setting the future direction of energy policy with reforms to Ofgem itself, changes to standing charges and overhaul of electricity markets on the cards as well as the roll out of the Clean Power Plan.

“But the UK government needs to ensure that those suffering now are not abandoned. This means more support for households through a social tariff and delivering on its promise to help people to insulate their homes.”

Warm This Winter spokesperson Caroline Simpson said:

“As the latest price cap rise means energy bills will be 67% above what they were in winter 2020/21 we need long term solutions.

“A comprehensive insulation programme is the quickest and easiest way to bring down bills permanently because in real terms the average household is paying more than £700 extra to use similar levels of energy as a few winters ago.

“We have 8.8 million adults living in cold damp homes, exposed to the health complications that come from living in fuel poverty and while we welcome recent initiatives from Ofgem, insulation and ramping up renewables to get us off volatile oil and gas for good, is what we need.

“That has overwhelming support from people in the UK with eight in 10 backing an increase in the construction of offshore wind turbines and solar panel farms and three quarters (74%) supporting onshore wind farms. We urge the Government to get on with the job they have started on that road to permanently lowering bills for all.”

For older people, the changing price cap means that over the coldest months of the year, the poorest pensioners who have had the winter fuel payments taken away from them have had to find an extra £522 just to use the same, average household, level of energy. [3]

ENDS

[1] Opinium conducted an online survey of 2,000 UK adults between 22nd and 26th November 2024. Results have been weighted to be nationally representative.

[2] Consumer energy debt now stands at £3.82bn (Ofgem, December 2024). Profits figures released on 28 December 2024.

[3] Price cap for 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2023 stood at £1,834. As that is an annual figure, we divide it by 4 = £458.50 for the average household energy costs in that period. Price cap for 1 Jan 2024 to 31 Mar 2024 was £1,928, divided by 4 = £482. So the average household’s energy bill for the six months 1 Oct 23 to 31 Mar 24 was £940.50.

Then apply the £300 WFP and £300 Cost of Living adjustments, so the average older household would be paying £341 for this six months. Other WFP households which didn’t get COL payments would have paid £741.

Price cap 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2024 was £1717, divided by 4 = £429.25. Price cap 1 Jan to 31 Mar 25 is £1,738 divided by 4 = £434.50. So the average household’s energy bill for the six months is £863.75 which will be paid by all those missing out on WFP this year.

That’s a difference of £522 for the poorest pensioners and £123 for other pensioners.

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