Price cap tweaks fail households as cold snap hits the country

A marginal change to the energy price cap will put more pressure on struggling households this winter, campaigners have warned, with average bills still set to remain almost £700 higher than before the energy crisis.

Even when the changes to bills announced in the recent Budget come into effect in the spring of 2026, average energy bills will remain higher than they were in winter 2020/2021 and above the level of the price cap at the last General Election.

Meanwhile, evidence shows unsafe housing conditions are becoming entrenched. Almost a third (29%) of adults say they are unable to keep their home at the recommended minimum temperature of 18°C. [1]

For 14% of UK adults, the situation is so severe that they consider themselves to live in cold, damp homes, with much higher rates among low-income households, families with children and people with long-term health conditions.

Campaigners warn that these conditions are not just uncomfortable, but dangerous.

Among those living in cold, damp homes, almost one in five (18%) say they have experienced high levels of carbon monoxide in their home in the past 12 months. [2]

Yet even as households face growing risks, regulatory decisions continue to protect industry returns.

In the detailed price cap documents, Ofgem confirmed that the Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) allowance built into the cap will rise by £1.51 per household from January to March 2026. This represents a 4% increase, potentially handing suppliers millions of pounds of extra profit while the average household energy bill will rise by 0.2 percent. [3]

More broadly, analysis shows that just 27 energy companies from across the industry have made more than £125bn in UK profits since 2020, forming part of more than half a trillion pounds in global profits across the sector during the energy crisis. More than four-fifths of those profits come from companies with extensive involvement in the gas industry.

But reliance on gas is not only driving bills and profits – it is also a shrinking and risky foundation for the UK’s energy system.

Official data shows the UK will no longer be able to meet national heating demand using domestically extracted gas from 2027, underlining the growing disconnect between record profits and a North Sea basin in long-term decline.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“It really is a case of every little doesn’t help as cold weather grips the country and the price cap nudges upward.

“Households are facing their fifth winter of unaffordable energy bills. For millions of people, this cold isn’t an inconvenience, it’s a real risk to health and safety as they struggle to keep homes warm.

“More households are being pushed into cold, damp homes where cutting back on heating, delaying repairs and blocking ventilation increases the danger of carbon monoxide exposure.

“At the same time, the energy industry has made more than £125bn in UK profits since 2020, including firms operating in a declining North Sea. Ministers must act now by funding the Warm Homes Plan, fixing energy pricing and introducing a fair social tariff so people can stay safe every winter.”

ENDS 

[1] Opinium conducted an online survey of 2,000 UK adults between 25th and 27th November 2025. Results have been weighted to be nationally representative.
18 degrees centigrade is the level advised by World Health Organisation experts to reduce the risk of illness. Telfar Barnard L, Howden-Chapman P, Clarke M, Ludolph R. Web Annex B. Report of the systematic review on the effect of indoor cold on health. In: WHO Housing and health guidelines. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2018 (WHO/CED/PHE/18.03). Licence: CC BY-NCSA 3.0 IGO.

[2] Carbon monoxide, which is colourless, odourless and potentially fatal, is produced by faulty or poorly ventilated gas appliances, with risks increasing when heating systems are under-used or poorly maintained due to cost pressures. 

[3] See Ofgem summary of price cap changes pdf, p7.

Carbon monoxide problems more common in fuel poor homes

Households living in cold and damp homes are far more likely to report experiencing dangerous levels of carbon monoxide, according to new research, raising fresh warnings about the hidden safety risks facing people in fuel poverty.

Figures from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition show that 18% of people who say they live in a cold, damp home have had issues with high levels of carbon monoxide in the past 12 months, compared with just 7% of UK adults overall.

Carbon monoxide, which is colourless, odourless and potentially fatal, is produced by faulty or poorly ventilated gas appliances. Campaigners say people struggling to heat their homes are more likely to be exposed to risk, as unaffordable repair costs, ageing boilers and attempts to retain heat by blocking ventilation combine to create dangerous conditions indoors.

The research also shows that certain groups were significantly more likely to report carbon monoxide problems, particularly those facing additional housing and financial pressures. Reports were especially prevalent among 18 to 34-year-olds (16%) and households with children under 18 (11%).

Safety concerns are further compounded by a lack of basic protection, with almost one in three members of the general public (31%) saying they do not have a working carbon monoxide detector in their home.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said the findings showed how unsafe housing conditions and poverty are putting lives at risk:

“The fact that people living in cold and damp homes are significantly more likely to experience carbon monoxide problems exposes a deadly intersection between poverty, poor housing and our continued reliance on gas. People in fuel poverty are more likely to be trapped in older, badly maintained or poorly ventilated properties, dramatically increasing the risk of carbon monoxide exposure.

“In rented accommodation tenants may feel unable to report safety concerns for fear of eviction or rent rises. That creates a toxic situation where serious hazards go unreported, life-threatening faults remain unfixed and vulnerable households are left exposed to an invisible killer.

“Ending fuel poverty is not just about lowering bills. It means tackling unsafe housing, strengthening tenants’ rights and moving away from fossil fuel systems that put people’s health at risk every winter.”

Campaigners say the findings strengthen the case for targeted investment in warm, well-ventilated homes and affordable clean heating systems, warning that without action, fuel poverty will continue to expose millions to avoidable health dangers behind closed doors.

Jade Monroe, Senior Project Manager at Students Organising for Sustainability, commented:

“Research shows that 59% of students’ say they feel uncomfortably cold and 54% say they have damp or mould in their rented student accommodation. We know that living in these conditions already puts undue pressure on students’ health and wellbeing and so it is worrying to hear that there is the additional risk of carbon monoxide exposure. We want to see fuel poverty reduced and vulnerable tenants protected, and that means making significant investment to improve accommodation in the private rented sector.”

All households should follow basic Government advice to ensure they remain safe from carbon monoxide. If carbon monoxide build up is suspected, follow advice from Energy UK and contact the Gas Emergency Service (24 hours) on 0800 111 999.

The public should remain vigilant for signs of carbon monoxide poisoning, such as:

  • headache / dizziness
  • feeling or being sick
  • feeling weak
  • confusion
  • chest and muscle pain
  • shortness of breath

If carbon monoxide poisoning is suspected follow NHS advice and contact 111 or 999.

ENDS

Opinium conducted an online survey of 2,000 UK adults between 25th and 27th November 2024. Results have been weighted to be nationally representative. Opinium is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.