Gas wholesale prices have now hit levels not seen since 2023 (as at 09:00 3 March 2026 they were at levels last seen on 30 January 2023, up 36% year-on-year) and the cost of heating oil is also surging (up 39% year on year).
A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:
“Global price shocks translate into higher energy costs because the UK remains so heavily dependent on gas and the mature North Sea basin will be unable to meet domestic demand within the next few years. Our energy system also links the cost of gas to electricity prices because the grid still relies on gas-fired power stations, although this influence eased last year.
“The conflict has already started to push wholesale gas prices to levels we’ve not seen since 2023, but for now most households are shielded by the Ofgem price cap.
“Bills are effectively protected until at least 1 July 2026 because the April to June cap has already been set. The cap works by smoothing out price spikes and delaying the passing on of cost increases to consumers. But that also means the real risk is what happens next.
“If wholesale prices fall back, the impact may be limited. But if elevated prices persist, they will affect Ofgem’s next price cap decision in May, which takes effect from July.
“It is also unclear how suppliers will respond in the fixed tariff market. In periods of uncertainty they often withdraw or increase the price of deals to avoid exposure to volatile wholesale costs.
“Households that rely on heating oil are even more exposed, and the latest surge in those prices will be a major concern for rural and off-grid families needing to refill in the coming weeks.
“This is a stark reminder that the UK is still dangerously exposed to volatile international markets. The only lasting protection for households is to cut gas demand through a nationwide insulation programme, expand homegrown renewables and reform energy pricing so bills are no longer tied so closely to global fossil fuel prices.”